We are less than 72 hours away from Super Bowl LV.
This year’s dance features the reigning champion, Kansas City Chiefs (16-2), against the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5).
No team has ever hosted a Super Bowl on their home field. But we all should have known that if anyone were going to make that happen, it would be Bucs quarterback (QB) Tom Brady.
In terms of sports betting traffic, the Super Bowl is the single most bet-on sporting event of the year. Why? Because there are so many bets to choose from. PlayUSA has even officially projected at least $500 million will be wagered on the game in legal betting markets across the US. You can bet on everything from the Gatorade color and the coin flip outcome to more traditional things like point spread and moneyline.
This year, DraftKings Sportsbook (who will be airing two Super Bowl commercials) released a list of over 700 prop bets with more expected to be added before kickoff.
After scrolling through the list, here are some fun Super Bowl prop bets that have my attention.
#5 Total touchdown passes thrown: Over 2.5 Tom Brady +130
This is the legend Tom Brady we are talking about. To outduel Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, Brady will have to (and easily can) throw more than two touchdowns. But Bucs Head Coach (HC), Bruce Arians, is no fool. If you get caught in a touchdown frenzy with Kansas City, you will lose.
Arians knows the only thing that matters is the end score. If Tampa Bay can beat the high-powered Chiefs without throwing a single touchdown, they would take that any time.
#4 Player to score at least 2 touchdowns: Travis Kelce +250
As mentioned, this is Kansas City. This team loves to throw the ball. They average over 312 passing yards a game and score over 29 points a game.
With those figures in mind, enter Chiefs tight-end (TE) Travis Kelce, arguably the best TE in football. In his two playoff games, Kelce has 21 catches for 227 yards and 3 TD. His numbers dwarf all other players except teammate Tyreek Hill.
You can expect Kelce to be a favorite of Mahomes during Sunday’s game. However, catching a single touchdown in a Super Bowl is challenging. Catching two, damn near impossible. No MVP in the Super Bowl era has ever caught more than one TD in the big game. And that includes Jerry Rice, Lynn Swann, and Fred Biletnikoff.
But if anyone has the ability to do it, it’s Kelce.
A sleeper prop-bet: Player to score at least 2 touchdowns: Leonard Fournette +550
When the Bucs get inside the 10-yeard line, this bruising running-back (RB) is getting the football.
#3 Player position MVP winner: Running Back +800
Since 1998, the Most Valuable Player award has been a QB award. This is except for a handful of WR’s, three line-backers (Von Miller, Malcolm Smith, Ray Lewis), and a single corner-back, Dexter Jackson.
The last RB to win the award was Terrell Davis. In Super Bowl 32, he had 30 carries for 157 yards and 3 TDs helping lead the Denver Broncos to a 31-24 win over the Green Bay Packers.
This years game will feature three high profile RB’s. Kansas City has standout rookie, Clyde Edwards-Helaire who ran for 803 yards and 4 TDs this season.
Tampa Bay has a pair of weapons in second-year back Ronald Jones II (978 yards/7 TDs) and Lenard Fournette (367 yards/6 TDs).
Perhaps this is the year when a running-back finally reclaims the award. In my opinion, these three guys have the ability to do it.
#2 To score first & team to win: Mike Evans +2200
Tom Brady may be the de facto leader of the Buccaneers, but Mike Evans has been the glue of the offense since he was selected in the first round of the 2014 draft.
He’s one of three players in Sunday’s game with over 1,000 receiving yards in the regular season and the only player on Tampa Bay with double-digit touchdowns (13).
Evans will be a key focal point of the Bucs on Sunday and has the ability to score first and score big. The only teams to beat Brady in the Super Bowl are NFC East teams, so there is a good chance the Bucs come out on top.
A sleeper prop bet: To score first & team to win: Tyreek Hill +900
Hill is in a class of his own. He’s the only player I’ve seen catch a 5-yard screen pass and take it 85 yards for a touchdown. He has the ability to score anytime he touches the ball and tends to be the main target of Mahomes. Hill can score first, and the Chiefs can win this game.
#1 To score: Scotty Miller +475
I know it, Kansas City knows it, everybody knows it! When Bucs WR Scotty Miller is on the field, something magical is about to happen.
Miller is the pint-sized 6th round pick out of Bowling Green. To put it simply, Miller is a workhorse. He may be 5’9,” but he plays like he’s 6’2″.
He reminds me of a younger Julian Edelman who, if you recall, was MVP of Super Bowl 53.
The Bucs tend to draw up these magic plays for Miller. In the postseason, Miller has only 4 catches for 80 yards and 1TD. However, two of those catches were over 20+ yards, with his longest reception being 39 yards.
The only other Bucs WR with more catches longer than 20 yards, Mike Evans.
I like Miller, and I expect some magic from him on Sunday.