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Missouri is set to launch legal sports betting on December 1, 2025, following years of legislative gridlock that repeatedly stalled efforts to pass a bill. While the launch is a win for sports betting advocates, it comes with a notable drawback. By launching after the first three months of the NFL season, a period that consistently drives the highest betting activity, Missouri will miss out on a significant amount of tax revenue.
While the exact amount of lost tax revenue is uncertain, we’ve developed a projection based on comparable states and current market trends.
Missouri Sports Betting Revenue Projections (Step-by-Step)
The NFL season is by far the most profitable time of the year for sportsbooks across the country. While football plays a huge part in those riches, sportsbooks’ bottom lines also benefit from the MLB, NHL, and men’s and women’s NCAA basketball seasons that run in tandem with various parts of the NFL season.
To calculate how much tax revenue Missouri could miss out on by launching on December 1 instead of, say, September 1 (the week the NFL season starts), we’ve considered Missouri’s sports betting tax rate and revenue projections for the state based on a comparative analysis of other states of similar populations that offer legal sports betting.
Missouri’s Sports Betting Tax Rate
Missouri will tax its sports betting operators 10% on revenue earned from all types of sports betting (in-person, online, and mobile). The 10% rate is competitive compared to other states and applies equally to all forms of wagering, without differentiating between in-person, online, or mobile bets.
This 10% tax rate is the basis for understanding how much revenue the state can earn from its sports betting operators.
State revenue projections
To estimate potential tax revenue from the NFL season, we first projected how much Missouri sportsbooks might earn during September through November, based on revenue from similarly sized states, per the Census Bureau.
| State | September 2024 sports betting revenue | October 2024 sports betting revenue | November 2024 sports betting revenue | Total revenue from September to November 2024 |
| Arizona | $76,364,871 | $55,622,010 | $86,285,876 | $218,272,757 |
| Massachusetts | $75,371,722 | $50,321,644 | $82,589,650 | $208,283,016 |
| Indiana | $55,254,534 | $35,082,061 | $68,820,755 | $159,157,350 |
| Maryland | $65,431,799 | $49,601,687 | $82,338,595 | $197,372,081 |
| Colorado | $55,092,144 | $39,328,305 | $55,666,475 | $150,086,924 |
Using total revenue and population figures from these five states, we can get a rough estimate of how much revenue Missouri sportsbook operators could earn during the first three months of this year’s NFL season:
| State | Total revenue from September to November 2024 | 2024 population (estimate) | Revenue per capita (average) |
| Arizona | $218,272,757 | 7,582,384 | $28.79 |
| Massachusetts | $208,283,016 | 7,136,171 | $28.19 |
| Indiana | $159,157,350 | 6,924,275 | $22.99 |
| Maryland | $197,372,081 | 6,263,220 | $31.51 |
| Colorado | $150,086,924 | 5,957,493 | $25.19 |
| Total | $933,172,128 | 33,863,543 | $27.56 |
| Missouri (projected) | $172,105,287 | 6,245,466 | $27.56 |
Missouri is missing out on a projected $17.2 million in tax revenue by launching late
Based on average per-capita revenue from comparable states, Missouri sportsbooks could generate an estimated $172 million during the first three months of the NFL season. That translates to approximately $17.2 million in lost tax revenue from the delayed launch.
Missouri sports betting updates
Missouri’s application window is now open to sports betting operators. Companies can apply for one of two untethered licenses, which don’t require a partnership with a casino or professional sports team, as well as a broader pool of tethered online and retail licenses.
BetMGM announced earlier this month that it has signed a deal to offer online and mobile sports betting through Century Casino & Hotel Cape Girardeau, pending regulatory approval. Meanwhile, bet365 secured a marketing partnership with the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this year—a move that will likely pave the way for a future sportsbook launch. A flurry of additional partnerships is expected in the coming months.
