Regular season MVP is the biggest award a player can receive in the NFL. It’s the pro version of the Heisman Trophy and, similarly, tends to go quarterbacks who have the ball in their hands a lot.
Astute NFL bettors cashed in big time last season with Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, who hit the board as a +4100 long shot to bring home the bacon. For 2020-21 he finds himself neck and neck with Patrick Mahomes on the odds board to win the MVP again at US online sportsbooks.
If you want to bet on 2020 NFL MVP futures, buckle up as we show you how to get your money in to pick the next king of the NFL.
Odds are you see beside a player are the best offered at any legal US online sportsbook. Scroll down the table to see the top MVP candidates; click on the Metabet logo to see even more odds. Click on any of the odds or the sportsbook logo to claim your bonus and register a new account.
DraftKings Sportsbook — NFL lines are a big deal at DraftKings with individual game lines, team futures, award futures, player totals, offseason specials and season leaders all on the table.
The NFL MVP race is, of course, one of their biggest markets with active line movement from Day 1 of the off-season right through to the end of the regular season
Open an account at DraftKings to bet NFL MVP and get:
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FanDuel Sportsbook — Already widely known for its parlay insurance, odds boosts and ease of navigating through both its online sportsbook and app, FanDuel is one of the most attractive mobile betting apps to have with its highly competitive betting odds and lightning fast payouts.
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FOX Bet Sportsbook — The marriage between PokerStars and the Fox Network has made a name for itself early on with intriguing betting options including Super Boosts, Spin and Bet and a cash-out option that lets you get out of bad bets at discounted prices.
FOX Bet has also been more competitive in the NFL MVP odds market early on by offering greater payoffs than competitors. It too offers up a $1,000 total bonus that includes a 50% deposit bonus and first-bet insurance up to $500.
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Though all sportsbooks ultimately differ in the way they do business, a full regular season would need to play out for there to be action when betting on NFL MVP.
If a player can’t play in 16 games due to the season being canceled, your bet would likely be refunded. If it’s an injury that cuts a player’s season short, it will be up to the sportsbook to decide how it wants to go about that dilemma. More times than not, a good faith refund will be administered.
As for how it pays out … Patrick Mahomes is, unsurprisingly, the front-runner to win the 2020 NFL MVP Award. His odds check in at around +400 or 4-1 at most sportsbooks before the season starts. This means a bet on Mahomes would pay out $400 for every $100 bet should he ultimately win the MVP award for the second time in his career.
Though his numbers tailed off dramatically a season ago from his rookie campaign, they were still pretty impressive. His current implied probability of pulling off the feat checks in at 20%, which has online sportsbooks praying to the gambling gods that another record-breaking season isn’t upcoming in his third full campaign.
In perusing this season’s NFL MVP candidates you’ll notice the odds are quarterback-heavy at the top — and for good reason. A QB has won the award each of the last seven seasons. Since the turn of the century, a grand total of four running backs have taken home the trophy:
No other position player has won the award during that stretch, which means 80% of the NFL MVPs this century were quarterbacks. You’ll also notice that wide receivers offer up ungodly returns on investment.
Michael Thomas is arguably the best wide receiver currently in the game yet his odds of winning the NFL MVP check in at 100-1. That’s because not a single WR has won the award since it came into existence all the way back in 1954. Heck, even a kicker won it!
Don’t put much thought into backing a defensive player, either. Lawrence Taylor’s 1986 season saw him become the first and only player who lined up on that side of the ball to win the award. Do yourself a favor and hitch your wagon to an NFL MVP candidate who has the keys to what’s likely to be one of the league’s more potent offenses.
It would also help if said team was playoff-bound, as well.
Before throwing your money down on Jackson to pull off the repeat, just know that it’s darn near impossible to do. The only players to win successive awards in the past 40 years are:
That said, Jackson enters 2020 with a gargantuan-sized chip on his shoulder after his Baltimore Ravens flamed out in the playoffs against the Tennessee Titans. While you’d love to see him improve his ball security, Lamar looked like a man against boys in his second full season, throwing for over 3,100 yards and 36 TDs while racking up another 1,200+ yards on the ground to go along with seven more scores.
Motivation is a key factor in cashing these types of futures tickets, and Lamar is going to be locked in.
Dak got paid this offseason for one year of service in Big D, and the betting markets are buying into him living up to the biggest payday of his career.
Now offering up around a 14-1 return, his odds to win the NFL MVP initially hit the board at 20-1.
With the addition of Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb to the wide receiver corps alongside studs Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, the Cowboys possess one of the premier pass-catching corps in the league. Prescott currently owns the keys to that sports car and looks to have a big season ahead of him.
The GOAT has already won the NFL MVP three times in his career, most recently back in 2017. Though Brady just turned 43 years old, Tampa Bay believed him to be the missing ingredient that takes its stacked offense to the next level.
Seriously, Brady has never played with the type of talent that will be surrounding him in 2020. Mike Evans goes for 1,000+ receiving yards every season. Chris Godwin blew up last year. He’s also been reunited with Gronk and has another athlete at tight end in O.J. Howard.
Brady’s got a spoil of riches to work with, and his odds of winning are expressed as such, with them around +1600 after opening at +2800.
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner has seen his odds of winning NFL MVP in 2020 shortened since first hitting the board at 35-1. While much of it had to do with DeAndre Hopkins becoming a member of the Arizona Cardinals in the offseason, it also had much to do with what he did in his rookie campaign.
Murray threw for over 3,700 yards and 20 TDs, but also proved to be a dual-threat QB with nearly 550 rushing yards and four more scores. If he can cut down on the interceptions and build a solid rapport with what looks to be a fantastic pass catching corps, the sky will be the limit for the second-year player—especially if ‘Zona figures out how to compete in the ultra-competitive NFC West.
Remember that chip on Lamar Jackson’s shoulder? Well, Barkley’s just might be bigger. It was a lost 2019 campaign for 2018’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. He suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and was a shell of his former self for weeks after returning from the injury.
That was up until Week 15 when he started to look like the Saquon Barkley we all know and love. He combined for 393 rushing yards and four TDs the last three weeks of the regular season and added another 115 yards and a score catching passes out of the backfield.
If 100% healthy and running with purpose, Barkley could put an end to the running back position’s MVP drought. Even if the G-Men stink and Barkley puts up monster numbers, the AP and others will be forced to pay attention.
See a trend here? Kamara makes it three straight Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winners worth targeting for NFL MVP this season. It’s now or never for the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees is in the twilight of his career, so the window of opportunity for N’awlins to win another Super Bowl is closing.
Even so, big things are expected from the dual threat out of the backfield after struggling through an injury-marred 2019 campaign that saw him grossly fail to match the outputs of his first two seasons in the league. The Saints will likely possess one of the best offenses in the league should all the pertinent pieces remain healthy. If so, you can bet your bottom dollar Kamara plays a big role in the unit’s efficiency.
Most are unaware of this, but the winner of the award is already chosen before the playoffs begin. Those responsible for the decision are a panel of 50 voters from the Associated Press, the Newspaper Enterprise Association, Pro Football Writers of America and United Press International (UPI).
A grand total of nine players have won the NFL MVP more than once. Peyton Manning sits atop the list at five wins, with the last coming back in 2013. Players who have won it three times are:
Joe Montana, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner and Steve Young have each won the award twice.
The Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers have had the most winning players, with nine and eight, respectively.
While Brett Favre put forth another worthy MVP season in 1997 with 3,867 passing yards and 35 TDs to lead the Packers to a 13-3 regular season record, Barry Sanders should’ve won the award outright after logging another of what still remains a record six 2,000-yard rushing seasons. He also scored 14 TDs and averaged a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry!
Even so, the players shared a split of the award. Other notable controversies include Joe Montana throwing 16 interceptions and still stealing the award away from Randall Cunningham, who lit the gridiron up with 3,466 passing yards and a 30:13 TD/INT ratio while ripping off another 942 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Talk about highway robbery.
Using recent history as an indicator, there’s only been one repeat winner since the turn of the century, that being Peyton Manning in 2008-09. While the voting panel has shown a knack for giving the award to a player multiple times, it’s also exhibited hesitance in handing it off to the same player in successive seasons.
Montana, Favre and Manning are the only three to have won consecutive awards in the last few decades. Those looking to back Jackson this season could benefit, considering all three of those players played the quarterback position.
If looking to attain the most bang for your buck, then you’ll certainly want to take fliers on unsuspecting big underdogs before the regular season begins. Heck, you might even make it a point to get down early on a couple favorites.
Once the cat is out of the bag, the betting markets pounce in hopes of gaining the most value from an investment. Betting lines for the NFL MVP Award react and move accordingly every single week to players who have good and bad games. Make it a point to be in the know to allow for some excellent hedging opportunities down the road.
Originally called the Joe F. Carr trophy and awarded from 1938-1946, the AP award is now considered the NFL MVP trophy. AP stands for Associated Press.