NFL Betting Systems

Do football betting systems actually turn a profit?


Like the search for the Lost City of Atlantis, Bigfoot, and the Loch Ness Monster, people have spent decades hunting down the legend of a surefire NFL betting system with little to no success.

Does the myth of an NFL betting system that can guarantee a profit have any truth to it? Probably not, but that hasn’t stopped so-called “NFL betting experts” from promising they have one.

Can you trust these people and the systems they sell? Is it a good idea to skip doing your research and buy NFL picks instead? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean no one has ever made a profit using an NFL betting system.

Most football betting systems make more money for the people selling them than those using them. However, some systems have proven themselves profitable for some time.

If you want to bet on sports for a living, you’ll have a hard time making ends meet if you’re blowing part of your bankroll buying picks or the secrets to some hardcore betting system.

However, casual NFL bettors with disposable cash can save the time and energy they’d otherwise spend doing research by using an NFL football betting system, and they may find a modicum of success.

Read on for more about how to bet legally on the NFL online right here in the US below. We’ll also explore which football betting systems work, which are a scam, and whether to consider paying for an NFL betting system or developing your own.

Should I use an NFL betting system?

If you don’t have the time to do the research required to analyze this week’s NFL odds or develop your own proven NFL system, you should certainly think about using one.

Look around the internet or right here on this website for more information on the free NFL betting models and strategies listed. If one feels right to you, go ahead and use it to bet on NFL games. If you find success: rinse, and repeat.

If you’re thinking about buying picks or the secrets to some NFL betting system you found on the web, make sure you get proof the system is successful and information about how it works. Also be sure to look for reputable people to vouch for it before you buy.

NFL systems can save you time, but if they cost money, they have to be profitable. Someone trustworthy should be able to convince you it will work before you shell out any cash.

Here’s the bottom line: using or investing in an NFL betting system is a personal choice. Plus, it’s a decision that should consider time, money, and your volume of NFL bets.

Is it worth it for a casual NFL bettor to invest in a betting system?

If you’re just using a bit of extra cash to bet on your favorite team or bet on the odd Monday Night Football game, paying for an online betting system might not make sense for you. Unless you’re trying to turn a hobby into something profitable, you might want to leave paying for a system to the other guy.

As a casual NFL bettor, you need to ask yourself if you’re betting often enough to make the system worth the investment. Also consider how long it will take you to recoup the money you paid for the system.

Most of the time, it will be a better idea to stick to casual betting or use a free system that can be found from this website or elsewhere on the web.

Should I buy an NFL betting system?

Casual bettors can give their bankrolls a boost by using a free NFL betting system rather than paying for one. As referenced above, volume of bets and seriousness of this pursuit should factor into your decision.

Paying for an NFL betting system doesn’t make sense if you just want to use a portion of your disposable income to have a little more skin in the game watching the hometown favorite on Sundays. But it might if you’re a dedicated fan looking to turn your NFL-watching hobby into a profitable endeavor.

Even then, you’ll want to use a combination of research and a proven strategy to develop your picks in a profitable NFL betting system.

Can I trust an NFL betting system?

You can only trust an NFL betting system if you trust the people that vouch for it.

Internet betting forums can be a good starting point for finding these people. Making some friends among the regulars at your local retail sportsbook can help as well.

Ultimately, you want to take the word of those who have no financial incentive in you buying in. It’s best to trust only the sports betting systems with proven track records and multiple references backing it up.

What about scams? How do I know if a system is legit?

If you had an NFL betting system guaranteed to generate profit, would you tell others about it, thereby risking sportsbooks making necessary adjustments?

You might let a few friends in on the action, but we highly doubt you’d set up a website and start selling the secrets of this system to the general public.

While most betting systems being sold over the internet aren’t necessarily a scam, they are designed to make money for the people selling them.

Bettors can avoid getting scammed by doing research on the system and the people selling it. If they can’t provide a track record of the model’s success, the system is likely too good to be true.

Most common NFL betting systems

NFL betting systems involve taking a specific approach to betting on NFL games. The rules or guidelines deployed can vary by system, but they’re often based on statistics. Anomalies, movements, formulas, and unique mathematical models are all analyzed.

Here’s a look at the basics involved in the most most common and popular NFL betting systems:

Betting against the public

Betting against the public, or “fading the public,” is a betting system that involves taking advantage of NFL line movements based on public NFL betting trends. When the public is betting one team disproportionately, sportsbooks will adjust a line to gather bets for the other side.

Betting against the public takes advantage of this. You’re simply betting that oddsmakers were right when they originally set the line, and taking advantage of newly improved odds.


The 80/20 NFL betting system hinges on home underdogs receiving just 20% or less of the total spread bets on the game. Research has shown these teams can win against the spread as much as 70% of the time or more.

Hedge betting

Hedge betting involves betting on a different outcome from your original bet to guarantee yourself a profit regardless of the outcome. You can do this if the line you bet on moves enough to make it profitable, or if you bet a parlay that is winning going into a final leg on Sunday or Monday night.


A halftime NFL betting system involves second-half betting or betting on specific lines posted for the second half of a game. The system asks you to look for big second-half underdogs and bet on them.

These teams have statistically proven to be 60% against the second-half spread over the past 15 years. The theory contends that two quarters isn’t enough time for most teams to cover a big amount of points.

The system also asks you to look for teams that are winning big at the half and bet on them. Teams leading by 14 points or more at the half are historically better than 55% against the second-half spread. Some people believe struggling teams will turn things around in the second half and big first-half winners tend to slow down, relax, and give back at least part of the lead. Statistics show the opposite is true.

Home underdogs

The home underdogs NFL betting system involves betting on home team underdogs. This approach worked many years ago, but sportsbooks began adjusting lines to consider home-field advantage. To be successful now, you must be more selective with the home underdogs you bet on and look for value in the lines.


The Over/Under is not one but many NFL betting systems involving betting on NFL totals markets based on statistics. Some suggest betting the under in divisional games which are often defensive battles. Others say to back the over in non-conference games where scoring is increased because the defense hasn’t had time to figure out the offense just yet.

Computer models and mathematical formulas

Some NFL betting systems are based on proprietary mathematical formulas and algorithms or computer models using neural networks and artificial intelligence. Some bases the models on stats from previous seasons while others are updated continually using game-by-game data.

There are tech-based NFL betting systems like this out there that claim they can predict NFL winners close to 75% of the time. If you’re thinking about buying such a system, the key is to find one with a proven track record and references to that fact.

Is there a betting system for NFL futures?

There’s no surefire system for NFL futures betting. However, we recommend combining common sense with the following NFL futures betting strategies, including:

  • Bet ’em early: Generally, the odds on the real favorites to win the Super Bowl will drop as they get closer to accomplishing that goal. That means you should try to lock in a futures bet at bigger odds in the offseason, preseason, or early part of the season.
  • Don’t bet ’em all: Don’t make as many different futures bets as you can hoping you’ll get one right. Instead, be a little more selective and do the math to ensure you’ll still make a profit if one of your futures does come in.
  • Don’t contradict yourself: Don’t bet on the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl and the New England Patriots to win the AFC. One of these bets can pay out, but not both.
  • Hedge when you can: Late in the season you may have the chance to hedge NFL futures bet. This simply means betting the other side to lock in a profit. Since anything can happen, this is always a good idea.
  • Shop around: Once you know who you like in an NFL futures market, look around for the best price on the bet. Finding bigger odds means the chance for a bigger win.

What’s the most profitable NFL betting system?

We’ll leave it up to the many touts on the web to claim how profitable their particular betting systems are. What we suggest is making them prove it to you and ensure they provide you with trusted references before you buy.

Some basic free football systems have proven more profitable over time than others.

Halftime, home underdog, and most Over/Under systems have lost a lot of profitability. Sportsbooks have become more adept in setting betting odds & lines across the board.

That leaves the 80/20 NFL betting system, which looks more like a statistical anomaly that could collapse at any time, and hedge betting. This either requires rare big movements in a line or parlay betting, which we already know offers one of the biggest profit margins for sportsbooks, not bettors.

Finally, there’s betting against the public, which requires you to take advantage of the movement in NFL lines caused by excessive betting on one side or the other. This system has proven profitable in the right situations, but you have to be willing to accept it means betting only a select number of NFL games and sometimes not at all.

Are sports betting systems better than a do-it-yourself approach?

If you’re going to take football betting seriously you should probably consider every approach you can. That means testing out winning football betting systems and doing research into every bet you make. Do this and you’ll soon develop your own NFL betting strategy.

The do-it-yourself approach is fine for those who have the time to watch a lot of games, research NFL teams, and study the lines and odds.

Using a system is fine for those who don’t, but in the end, a combination of both will likely be the most successful for you.

Why do most NFL betting systems eventually fail?

Most NFL betting systems ultimately fail because it’s the oddsmakers’ job to make sure they do. NFL betting systems lose profitability over time because sportsbooks sniff them out and adjust the lines accordingly.

There’s no question sportsbooks have become more sophisticated in how they set NFL lines these days. If they are getting consistently beat on one side of a line and losing profitability, they will adjust.

Chris Feery Avatar
Written by
Chris Feery

Christopher is a full-time evergreen writer located in New Jersey. His work has appeared all over the web and has covered numerous industries. In recent years, he has dedicated his focus to sports from an analysis, betting, fantasy, and general news perspective. Chris covers sports betting content and app reviews for PlayUSA and the Play site network. You can follow and reach him on Twitter @cmfeery

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