Super Bowl MVP Odds 2022

The Super Bowl MVP Award is bestowed upon the player who has the biggest impact on the outcome of the game. While it may just be the icing on the cake for a player who has just experienced his most memorable career milestone, there’s a lot of personal pride involved in winning MVP, too.

On Feb. 13, 2022, the world will be betting on Super Bowl 56, which will bring together, as always, the top two teams in the AFC and the NFC.

There are 55 Super Bowls already in the annals of history and an equal number of players who have their name attached to football lore forever with an award-worthy performance on the game’s biggest possible stage. Predicting the winner of the MVP trophy is always one of the favorite Super Bowl prop bets and there are undeniably some heavy favorites worth a look going in.

Who is the most likely MVP when favorites or underdogs win the Super Bowl?

On the moneyline, favorites have a commanding lead through 55 Super Bowls: 36-18 with one pick’em. On the spread, it’s a much different story at 28-24-2 for favorites with one pick’em. Totals are split right down the middle at 27-27 for the Over with no totals line set for Super Bowl I.

For a correlation to the MVP award, the spread and total results can matter somewhat, but the biggest needle mover comes from which team seals the deal: the favorite or underdog. Here’s the complete breakdown of the 56 winners by position for the moneyline outcomes.

Favorites: 36 wins

• QB: 19
• WR: 7
• RB: 3
• LB: 2
• DE: 2
• S: 1
• CB: 1
• DT: 1
• Ret: 1
• Note: Total of 37 MVPs due to co-winners at Super Bowl XII

Underdogs: 18 wins

• QB: 11
• RB: 4
• LB: 2
• S: 1

Pick’em: 1 game

• QB: 1

While a QB is the most likely winner for both favorites and underdogs, the position is more likely to get the nod when the latter wins. For favorites, it’s 19 times in 36 wins for 52.8%. On the dog side, it’s 11 of 18, or 61.1%.

Meanwhile, defenders and receivers are more likely to fit the bill when the favorite wins the game. While we don’t walk away with one definitive strategy from this exercise, we do gain some very interesting food for thought on the players to focus on in relation to our pregame calls on who will win the game.

Tips for Betting on Super Bowl MVP

So when it’s time for the Super Bowl, just bet on both QBs to win MVP and call it a day, right? Not exactly. You can certainly find some winners that way, but there’s no guarantee that you’ll be profitable due to varying odds. Instead of taking out the abacus to find a way to make that strategy work, use the following three tips to find some winners.

Project out the game

If you know the spread and the Over/Under, you can figure out the projected score for an NFL game pretty quickly. There are also plenty of sites that do it for you. Either way, take what the oddsmakers are telling you and use that to try and envision how the game might play out. Do you agree, or are you seeing something different from what the odds say?

Find the impact players

Each team has playmakers on both sides of the ball. The QB controls the offense and is an obvious choice, while the skill position players who see the most work also fit the bill. On offense, also look for the players who can break off big plays. As for defense, the players who force turnovers, generate sacks, and make a lot of tackles could be in line to make some game-breaking plays.

Make your calls on the pregame bets

Before trying to bet on the Super Bowl MVP, make your calls on the moneyline, spread, and totals – even if you don’t plan on betting on all three. By doing this, you’ll have a more concrete stance on how the game projects to play out. From there, make your selections from the most viable contenders on the side that you think is most likely to win.

To that last point, there’s nothing written in stone that says you only have to make one wager on Super Bowl MVP. In fact, many bettors spread out the risk with several calls on the game. If you budget correctly, you can come out ahead if one of your multiple selections goes on to win.

Is a QB the best bet for Super Bowl MVP?

It’s clear that QBs win the Super Bowl MVP award often. That being the case, there’s no way to say that betting on one of those players to win is a bad call. However, there is something to be said for spreading out the risk – and for trying to sniff out an unexpected winner.

When you look at the Super Bowl MVP odds board, the QBs will be the favorites. As you head further down the board, you’ll find more favorable odds for other position players. Trying to cover all of the possible bases can quickly turn into a bankroll drain, but you can spread out the risk with some other viable contenders.

As a quick example, you can bet on the QB of the team you expect to win, and then pick out the other players that you think will have the most impact on offense and defense. Just like that, you have three bets in play. If you nail one of them and budget correctly, you can still come out ahead.

Super Bowl MVP Controversies

There have been times when the Super Bowl MVP award winner has been rather clear cut. Others? Not so much. Beyond the general complaints of a QB winning it way too often, there have been some real head-scratchers from voters through the years. Here are three of the most notable.

• Super Bowl V – 1971
  • Result: Baltimore Colts 16 Dallas Cowboys 13
  • MVP: LB Chuck Howley, Dallas Cowboys
  • Backstory: Howley is the only member of a losing team to be named Super Bowl MVP. While he had a solid game, it’s not like there weren’t any viable contenders from the winning side. John Mackey busted a 75-yard TD score, while Jim O’Brien nailed a field goal with five seconds left to win the game.

• Super Bowl XII – 1978
  • Result: Dallas Cowboys 27 Denver Broncos 10
  • MVP: DE Harvey Martin and DT Randy White, Dallas Cowboys
  • Backstory: The only time there were co-MVPs. There were no standouts on offense for the Cowboys, so a defender certainly made sense, and Martin and White both had great games. That said, it’s an MVP award, not ‘everyone gets a trophy for effort.’

• Super Bowl LI – 2017
  • Result: New England Patriots 34 Atlanta Falcons 28 (OT)
  • MVP: QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots
  • Backstory: The Patriots came from behind to win one of the most thrilling Super Bowls. Brady certainly worked his magic, but RB James White was an absolute monster with a three-TD performance. While Brady is more than deserving of all of his accolades, the wealth could’ve been shared here.

Whenever there’s money on the line, there will undoubtedly be some folks who are unhappy with the results. Since the MVP award is in the hands of voters, even more frustration can ensue. Here’s to hoping that they get it right more often than not in the future.

History of the NFL Super Bowl MVP Award

The history of the Super Bowl stretches all the way back to 1967. The Green Bay Packers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 35-10 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The game was dubbed as the ‘First World Championship Game’ between the rival AFL and NFL. At the game’s conclusion, Packers QB Bart Starr was named MVP.

There have now been 55 editions of the Big Game and a corresponding number of MVP award winners on the grand stage. The NFL itself has evolved tremendously along the way. Dynasties were relatively common from the early days into the 1990s, but back-to-back winners have become increasingly rare in the modern era.

As you saw when we walked through the Super Bowl MVP betting trends above, the award itself has seen some changes. While QBs have always won their fair share, other positions have seen some ebbs and flows through the years.  Along the way, we’ve also seen several surprises with some unexpected winners hoisting the hardware.

The NFL Super Bowl MVP Award made its debut the same year as the big game itself.