The matchup is set. After 21 weeks, after five months, only two teams are left standing.
Come Feb. 2, at Super Bowl LIV in Miami, the NFL champion will be decided. Will it be the season’s surprise, the San Francisco 49ers? Or will it be the next potential dynasty, the Kansas City Chiefs?
In two weeks at Hard Rock Stadium, one team will lift the Lombardi Trophy. Now’s your chance to get some skin in the game. And with 14 states offering legalized sports betting, including 10 states with online sportsbooks, Super Bowl betting has never been bigger.
So the question remains: Who ya got?
Recapping the Super Bowl futures
Heading into the playoffs, some preseason dreamers held tickets to a potentially life-changing payday.
Specifically, late-season heroics and a Cinderella run through the playoffs allowed for backers of Tennessee Titans to walk on cloud nine. At the end of the regular season, even the NFC North champion Green Bay Packers, a perennial power, nearly paid off handsomely.
Alas, the higher seeds prevailed. That said, the 49ers, listed at +4000 in preseason to win the Super Bowl, could still cash in nicely.
|Team||DraftKings Sportsbook||FanDuel Sportsbook|
|San Francisco 49ers||+400||+400|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+450||+450|
|New Orleans Saints||+600||+600|
|Green Bay Packers||+1000||+850|
|New England Patriots||+1200||+1200|
|*Odds as of Jan. 2|
And now: the Super Bowl betting matchup
As bettors who already have Super Bowl futures tickets in hand will tell you, it’s never too early to get wagers down on the world championship.
With the celebratory buzz still building in both Kansas City and San Francisco, sportsbooks across the country began rolling out lines for Super Bowl LIV. (Actually, several bookmakers started establishing the odds before a 49ers/Packers winner was even decided.)
Several bookmakers opened with a pick-em. Since then, the Chiefs have gained a slight edge. Per ESPN Stats & Information, no Super Bowl has closed with a pick-em, while four games have featured spreads of less than two points.
Here’s an early look at the various markets for Super Bowl LIV.
|Point spread||DraftKings Sportsbook||FanDuel Sportsbook|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-1.5 (-110)||-1.5 (-115)|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1.5 (-110)||+1.5 (-105)|
|Moneyline||DraftKings Sportsbook||FanDuel Sportsbook|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-122||-128|
|San Francisco 49ers||+108||+112|
|Totals||DraftKings Sportsbook||FanDuel Sportsbook|
|Over||54 (-110)||54.5 (-105)|
|Under||54 (-110)||54.5 (-115)|
Among teams with at least three appearances, San Francisco owns the best winning percentage in the Super Bowl with a 5-1 record.
On the other side, Kansas City coach Andy Reid could be due for his first Lombardi Trophy. Reid has 14 postseason wins (the most in league history without a Super Bowl) and just picked up his second conference title in seven tries.
Some Super Bowl betting history
Miami has a rich history of Super Bowls. Not only has the area hosted more Big Games than any other region, but it has also been the stage for some memorable matchups.
In the 10 games played in Miami, the AFC has gone 6-4. But of those four wins recorded by the NFC, the 49ers account for two of them. (San Francisco, in its first Super Bowl in 25 years, is 2-0 in South Florida; Kansas City has not been to the Big Game in 50 years and has not played in Miami.)
In a vacuum, favored teams in Miami have gone 5-5 against the spread, and the scoring totals break down in the following way:
- Four over
- Five under
- One push
The highest over/under closed at 57 points for Super Bowl LI, a game that ended with 62 points. The upcoming game has already seen total increase by a point. We’ll see how much higher it will go.
Super Bowl betting props to watch
As the Super Bowl nears, the array of proposition bets will widen.
Despite how early it remains, though, both DraftKings and FanDuel have set odds for a variety of props.
After recording the second-most rushing yards in a single playoffs game (220, second only to Eric Dickerson’s 248 in 1986) and after becoming the first player to rush for four TDs and 200 yards in the postseason, San Francisco RB Raheem Mostert is listed at -145 at FanDuel to find the end zone at any time during the Super Bowl.
Similarly, Kansas City RB Damien Williams, the speedster who has posted eight touchdowns in three playoff games with the Chiefs over the past two seasons, sits at -135 at FanDuel. The sportsbook also lists Williams at +430 to score two more more TDs.
DraftKings, meanwhile, set the coin toss winner line at -103 each for Kansas City and San Francisco. (A player accurately predicting the toss result pays -103, as well.)
Gamewise, the sportsbook has Williams and Mostert at +650 apiece to score the game’s first touchdown. The Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill sits at +750.
In five Super Bowl games, six players have scored three touchdowns. DraftKings pegs Mostert as the favorite at +1000, followed by Williams at +1300. Since 1998, only New England RB James White, in Super Bowl LI, has accomplished this feat.
Don’t forget about the fun props
The prop bets we hear about so often are available at both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as at a variety of other bookmakers).
At DraftKings, a “fat man TD” (one scored by an offensive lineman) pays +3300. Somewhat related: The over/under for the jersey number of the first and last TD scorers is set at 26.5. The odds for both are equal at +115 on the over and -143 on the under.
One of the more talked-about props is the color of the Gatorade bath provided to the winning coach. The colors and payouts at DraftKings:
- Red +150
- Orange +300
- Clear/water +450
- Yellow/green +450
- Blue +750
- Purple +1200
- None +1500
FanDuel, meanwhile, is taking bets on if the opening kickoff is returned for a touchdown. Such an event pays +8000, a worthy line considering only Devin Hester has accomplished the feat, and he did so 13 years ago.
The operator also asks if either team attempts a 2-point conversion (+120 for yes, -155 for no) and if either team will succeed at an attempt (+240 for yes, -330 for no). A 2-point try has occurred in seven of the last 10 Super Bowls, and five games have featured successful tries.
Additionally, bettors can put money down on whether or not the game’s last play will be a QB kneel (-170 for yes, +135 for no). Six of the last eight games did not end in victory formation.
Super Bowl MVP goes to…
As for the Super Bowl MVP, as at many sportsbooks across America, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is the favorite with both DraftKings and FanDuel to win the MVP, with San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo right behind. Here’s at a look at the top potential candidates at each book:
|DraftKings Sportsbook||FanDuel Sportsbook|
|Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (+115)||Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (+110)|
|San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo (+225)||San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo (+280)|
|San Francisco RB Raheem Mostert (+900)||San Francisco RB Raheem Mostert (+750)|
|San Francisco TE George Kittle (+1600)||San Francisco TE George Kittle (+1400)|
|Kansas City TE Travis Kelce (+2000)||San Francisco DE Nick Bosa (+2100)|
|Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill (+2000)||Kansas City TE Travis Kelce (+2100)|
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