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State of Play’s TL;DR
- Ohio, backed by a bipartisan coalition of 39 states, is asking the US Supreme Court to step into a fast-growing fight.
- The battle is over whether sports prediction markets are regulated as gambling by states or as federally overseen swaps.
Ohio is asking the US Supreme Court to step into the fight over sports-related prediction markets, arguing states – not federal regulators — should control the space.
The case could help define whether contracts offered by companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are treated as sports gambling or as federally regulated financial products.
Ohio, leading a bipartisan coalition of 39 states, has asked the high court to hear a dispute over prediction markets that offer sports-related contracts. The state says sports wagering has long been regulated by states, while operators including Kalshi and Polymarket argue their products are swaps overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Ohio and 39 states push for Supreme Court review
In its filing, Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson argued that prediction market operators are trying to reframe traditional wagers as something other than bets.
“Prediction markets say that classic sports bets – things like whether Joe Burrow throws three touchdowns or Ohio State beats Michigan – are not bets at all. The prediction markets are wrong. States have held the traditional power over sports gambling since this country’s beginning.”
The dispute has drawn support from major sports stakeholders. The NFL filed a separate brief urging the Supreme Court to act, warning that “billions of dollars will be bet on NFL games through prediction markets each season, and any delay from the Court will result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity.”
Not every league is on the same side. According to the source report, Major League Baseball and the NHL support sports betting through prediction markets and are siding with companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Ohio regulators already moved against sports event contracts
The Supreme Court request comes after the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Sept. 25 that Kalshi was improperly bypassing Ohio gaming laws by allowing event contracts on sporting events.
Ohio regulators have also taken direct enforcement action. Earlier this month, the Ohio Casino Control Commission ordered 10 prediction markets to stop offering contracts on sporting events in the state. The commission said, “Sports gaming cannot be offered in Ohio without a license issued by the commission.”
That state-level enforcement is at the center of the broader legal fight: whether sports event contracts belong under state gambling rules or federal commodities oversight.
What comes next in the prediction markets case
The Supreme Court is not required to take the case, and one of the biggest unanswered questions is whether the justices will agree to hear it. If they do, arguments would likely be held next year.
The issue is also beginning to draw attention in Congress. Lawmakers from Nevada have introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would leave sports gambling laws to the states and reserve the CFTC for financial markets.
For now, the Ohio-led filing keeps pressure on a question with nationwide consequences for regulators, operators, and the future of sports-related prediction markets in the US.
Based on reporting by Jamie Dupree for Springfield News-Sun.
