Updated Look At The 2024 US Elections And Gambling Issues

State governments rolling out gaming expansion legislation in 2024 looks like a net failure. However, significant developments to restrict online gaming in the United States in 2024 also gained zero momentum, so the year might turn out to be mostly insignificant for the industry overall.

With just 65 days remaining until Election Day 2024, races in various states could have implications for 2025 and beyond when it comes to gambling. Four states will decide on new governors who could play a role in potential expansion, while numerous state legislatures bear some intrigue in this regard.

Many of the storylines have remained unchanged since the earlier version of this article. However, important updates in multiple states demand attention.

Arkansas voters might cast meaningless votes on casino issue

In 2018, Arkansas voters approved a constitutional amendment that authorized four brick-and-mortar casinos in the state and specified locations for each. While three of those licenses are currently in use, the fourth in Pope County has been the subject of a flurry of litigation and a casino remains absent in Pope County six years later.

On Election Day 2024, voters across the state could cast another vote on the Pope County casino issue, although those votes may not matter. If approved by voters, a new proposed amendment would remove Pope County from the authorizations for a casino.

However, a last-ditch attempt to invalidate the referendum is underway. The state is arguing that the Arkansas Supreme Court should order election officials across the state to not count the votes on the question¹.

The measure would also raise the bar for future additions to the state’s casino landscape if it survives the court challenge and is approved by voters. Such changes would require a county-specific referendum for the proposed location.

The potential amendment would not affect the operations of the three existing casinos in the state if approved. At this time, there is little publicized polling on voter sentiment on the issue across the state. Funding in support of the referendum has far outpaced opposition funding², though.

Georgia primary doesn’t signal substantial change in Atlanta

While Georgia receives a lot of attention due to its importance in the 2024 US Presidential election, gambling industry players will be watching the races for the state’s legislature. The state has been among the leaders in failed attempts to expand gambling in recent years and after the state’s May primary, that position may only strengthen.

Defeats of incumbents in the primary were rare across the state. Only 14 of the 180 seats³ in the Georgia House of Representatives are guaranteed to see a new occupant, as the incumbent is running for reelection in the remainder.

In the Georgia Senate, districts 38 and 49⁴ are the only two of 56 that lack an incumbent running to keep their seat.

While Democrats may pick up a few seats in both chambers, the gains will not likely be strong enough to overcome the current 24-seat advantage that Republicans have in the state House and 10-member advantage in the Senate. In Georgia gambling expansion is not a strictly partisan issue, though, dividing Republicans as well.

Therefore, November will decide which faction of the Republican Party in terms of support for gambling expansion has more allies in Atlanta. Even if a pro-gambling caucus emerges dominant, that might not include support for online casinos.

Next Indiana governor could see gaming expansion bills

In May, current US Sen. Mike Braun easily defeated five primary challengers, securing the Republican nomination⁵ for the state’s governorship. On the Democratic side, Jennifer McCormick ran unopposed in that primary.

Neither campaign has made gambling a talking point, and it seems that both candidates are open to expansion while not ambitious in that regard. The latest polling⁶ suggests that Braun should win comfortably but not as easily as he did in the primary.

Whether they will see bills toward that end cross their desk during the next governor’s first term(s) will likely depend on how active the legislature is on the issue at that time. Attitudes have soured on gaming expansion because of corruption connected to the last round in 2019.

Enough time might pass during Braun’s or McCormick’s first term to make that a distant memory but it’s difficult to forecast. At the very least, it doesn’t seem like there will be an obstacle to such legislation in the governor’s chair in Indiana from 2025 through 2029.

Missouri will put on a show in November

Perhaps the most important state in the 2024 US elections as far as gambling concerns go, voters in the Show-Me State will not only decide on the composition of their legislature for the next four years but their governor, a new casino at the Lake of the Ozarks and a referendum on online gambling on Nov. 5.

A lawsuit was filed recently to invalidate the sports gambling ballot initiative.

Polling by 538⁷ from late last year shows Republican nominee Mike Kehoe with a small lead over Democrat Crystal Quade when it comes to the governorship. Kehoe has not made significant public statements on his sentiment on gambling expansion in the state.

Quade, as the House minority leader in Jefferson City, filed a bill that would have regulated sports wagering⁸ and video lottery terminals in the state during the 2024 regular session.

At the time, Quade said she believed it was time to regulate both gaming activities and capture revenue for the state from them.

On the surface, then, Quade seems to be the superior candidate for gambling expansion interests. That doesn’t mean that Kehoe would be opposed, however, if the legislature acted on the issue.

The partisan nature of the Missouri legislature could shift somewhat after the 2024 elections. Democrats might gain enough seats to end Republicans’ supermajority.

At the same time, the stalemate in that body over gambling expansion has not been between Democrats and Republicans but between different factions of the Republican Party. Thus, which part of the party will gain ground in November could decide how quickly online gambling could become regulated in Missouri.

If the referendum survives legal scrutiny, voters will decide on a constitutional amendment regarding sports betting in the state on Election Day, and the measure could very well pass. However, enabling legislation will still be necessary, and the Republican supermajority⁹ has a far from sparkling record when it comes to respecting the will of the state’s voters and implement ballot measures in Missouri.

If stalwarts remain in the Missouri Senate, regulated online gambling could see delays despite being added to the state’s Constitution.

In addition, a proposal to bring a casino to the Lake of the Ozarks will be on the November ballot, a judge recently ruled. It would be the state’s 14th casino.

Gambling proponents set to maintain places in Albany

In the New York Assembly and Senate, two names stick out in terms of being proponents of gambling expansion and gaming legislation. Those are Sen. Joseph Addabbo and Assembly member Gary Pretlow.

Pretlow is running unopposed in the 89th District of the Assembly while Addabbo does not have a Republican challenger in the Senate’s 15th district. Even with their reelection, that does not guarantee there will be substantial momentum toward regulating NY online casinos in 2025 or beyond.

For the time being, gaming-related concerns in the state are wrapped up in physical casino matters. Those include the licensing of up to three downstate casinos and the negotiation of a new compact between New York and the Seneca Nation.

It’s quite possible that until those matters see resolutions, conversations about online casino legislation will remain on the back burner in Albany.

Virginia city will get its chance to enter gaming fray

On Nov. 5, registered voters in Petersburg, Virginia, will have their say on whether they want a physical casino in their city. This city-specific referendum comes as a result of two failed votes on the same matter in the state capital of Richmond.

Should voters approve, the forthcoming casino would complete the five that 2019 legislation authorized across Virginia. Petersburg already has an agreement in place with The Cordish Companies for a Live!-branded casino in the city pending success of the referendum.

The amount of opposition or support among the city’s populace for the casino is unclear at this time. November’s vote will ultimately decide this issue and have ramifications for the gambling industry in many parts of the country.

How US lotteries could be affected by Nov. 5 outcomes

Retail and online lotteries in the US could be impacted by what voters decide on Nov. 5.

As mentioned earlier, Addabbo’s re-election race in New York is one to watch when it comes to iLottery. Addabbo has been a big proponent of the NY online lottery.

Ohio has been exploring an online lottery as well, recently publishing a lengthy report on the possibility from its General Assembly. Key representative supporters of iLottery, Jeff LaRe (R-District 73) and Cindy Abrams (R-District 29), are up for re-election. Rep. Jay Edwards (R-District 94), another strong advocate of iLottery, has reached his term limit and will see his seat up for grabs.

Five states don’t have retail lotteries. This November could change that for three of them.

Alabama was one Senate vote shy of putting lottery on the November ballot. While the Senate won’t be changing any seats, one House seat is at stake. Still, the influence of a lottery is growing and likely to be proposed in bill form in 2025.

Utah Rep. Kera Birkeland (R-District 4) has been pushing for a state lottery. She’s up for re-election this November, and already has plans to introduce another lottery bill in 2025 if she wins.

Nevada has strong public support for a retail lottery, but legislation stalled in 2024. This November, all 42 Assembly seats will be up for grabs, and 10 state Senate seats will also be decided.

In order for a lottery to be established, a change of the state constitution needs to take place. For that to happen, a bill would need to pass the Assembly and the Senate in consecutive years. So, while a lottery in Nevada might progress, it wouldn’t be put up to the voters until at least 2026.

— Drew Ellis of PlayiLottery