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Suppose 2024 was the year of gaming’s surge. In that case, 2025 will be the year it subsides, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA)’s latest AGA Gaming CEO Outlook, a twice-a-year analysis of various trends, forecasts, and economic factors in the gaming sector.
In particular, the study’s Future Conditions Index, which weighs the opinions of gaming CEOs, predicts a slowdown is coming:
“The Future Conditions Index reflects gaming CEO growth expectations that have softened relative to six months ago – with the share of executives expecting decelerating growth outweighing those expecting accelerating growth – and an economy that has shown solid growth recently, but which is expected to slow moderately in coming quarters.”
Key takeaways
- The AGA’s Fall 2024 Gaming CEO Outlook sees a slowdown in the next few months.
- The study’s Future Conditions Idex indicates industry CEOs aren’t as optimistic about the near future as they have been in the past.
- The state of the US economy is at the top of the list of CEO worries about the future.
AGA study sees a significant rise in CEOs’ negative sentiment
One of the most telling predictions from the AGA’s outlook report is the percentage of gaming CEOs who expect conditions to decline over the next three to six months. This figure was 28 percentage points higher than those who were optimistic about the near future.
That figure is a considerable increase over the Spring 2024 outlook report, in which the difference between negative and positive outlooks was just four percentage points.
AGA Vice President of Research David Foreman said in a statement that the increased negative sentiment is because CEOs expect the pendulum of growth to swing back after a sizzling run over the past few years. Forman said:
“After years of very strong consumer gaming spending growth, expectations around customer activity over the next three to six months have cooled considerably.
Still, gaming businesses remain well positioned, with executives touting strong balance sheets and more viewing access to credit as easy than restrictive for the first time in two years.”
Concerns over economy drive US gaming trepidation
Among the chief fears CEOs had about the future was their uncertainty over the US economy. That fear grew 22 percentage points from the AGA’s spring 2023 report to this fall.
Other factors driving CEOs’ pessimism included state regulations, inflation, and geopolitical risk.
In addition to an overall industry decline, CEOs believe several key industry metrics will decrease: the pace of hiring, revenue growth, and capital investment.
That being said, there’s widespread optimism about gaming’s current state. The report noted that 88% CEOs who responded to the survey saw “the current state of the gaming industry as either good or satisfactory.”
