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An unexciting beginning to the current fiscal year for Nevada casinos continued in August. While there are mitigating factors, a second consecutive month of year-over-year decline in casino win might initiate conversations about greater ramifications.
At the same time, two months is a small sample of data, even if the sample does represent consecutive months. It’s too early to start talking about why growth has stalled for Nevada’s gambling industry.
August numbers deviate from prior returns
According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, casinos from across the state combined to win under $1.2 billion during August 2024. That’s a marginal decline from August 2023 Nevada casino win.
As a result, the state stands to collect almost $57.7 million in gaming taxes for the month. That did decline significantly compared to August 2023, by almost 24%.
After July 2024 began the current fiscal year with a similar slight year-over-year decline, the running fiscal year total is approaching a statistically significant annual decline in terms of percentage. It’s not quite there yet, though, and it may not reach that threshold.
Nevada online casinos are not an option yet, but online poker can be played in the state.
Not time to panic yet
There are many reasons why a small year-over-year decline in casino win over a two-month period doesn’t represent a crisis for Nevada casino operators. The first is that they are down by one, and a big one at that.
The former Mirage and eventual new Hard Rock on the Las Vegas strip remains closed for renovations, limiting the state’s earning potential in terms of gaming win. That will remain the case over the next two years.
Furthermore, the same month prior year comparison is a bit skewed in this context because the 2023-24 fiscal year represents the most lucrative for Nevada casinos yet. Additionally, August 2023 stands as the best such month for casinos in the state on record to this point.
Therefore, the comparison in this context could be the norm vs. the outlier. At some point, the unprecedented growth had to slow.
Nevada casinos may have hit that stage, or this could be a lull in a greater overall upward trend. Progression in these cases is rarely completely linear.
Forthcoming months will do more to show whether August was part of a blip on the radar or the beginning of normalization for Nevada casinos. Either way, the state is still on a run of 42 consecutive months of at least a billion dollars in casino win, and many other states’ gambling industries are green with envy in that regard.
