Following a string of court victories, the stranglehold that Seminole Gaming has on regulated online gambling in Florida appears tighter than ever. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Floridians will never have access to any legal online casino brand other than Hard Rock, though.
As recent comments from Hard Rock International and Seminole Gaming CEO Jim Allen reinforce, it simply means that Seminole Gaming will set the terms for any other players in the market. Seminole Gaming could see value in a semi-competitive space.
The legal status of online casino play in Florida
Currently, playing online casino games for real money in Florida remains illegal. Floridians do have a regulated option for online sports wagering in the Hard Rock Sportsbook app.
While the potential legal challenges to Seminole Gaming’s monopoly on regulated sports wagering in Florida are not necessarily exhausted, few of those remain.
The decision of the Supreme Court of the United States not to review a favorable ruling for Seminole Gaming in June essentially ended that pursuit on the federal level. However, West Flagler Associates still has levers to pull in Florida courts if it wishes.
The expectation is that at some point, the Seminole Tribe of Florida will look to revise its gaming compact with Florida and the US government to expand its control to online casino play within Florida’s borders.
Hard Rock does have an online casino platform and currently offers that to players in New Jersey. Seminole Gaming does technically have market access1 in Michigan although it has yet to make use of that opportunity.
Florida online casino fans might be eager to see Hard Rock Casino become available in their state. Allen’s comments suggest that other options might come in the future as well.
Allen says Hard Rock is open to conversations
Florida is an attractive market for any gambling company because of its population. That base of probable customers might make Hard Rock’s competitors in other US jurisdictions amenable to paying Seminole Gaming’s price to get in.
The current gaming compact does allow the Seminole Tribe of Florida to essentially “license” out the ability to offer online sports wagering in Florida. That same concept could be part of a new online casino amendment to the compact.
Should that prove the case, Allen suggests that Hard Rock would at least have a conversation about it with interested parties. Contessa Brewer of CNBC reports2 that Allen said Hard Rock has “developed a really great relationship with” DraftKings and FanDuel.
Allen added that “we do recognize that long-term, some type of strategic relationship with some of the brands that really have marquee value could be helpful to both of us, and we’re receptive to those conversations.”
Allen’s perspective that such relationships could be a rising tide that lifts all ships is easy to understand. Seminole Gaming would be negotiating while holding all the cards.
The potential of a more open market
Data from multiple US jurisdictions suggest that having a competitive market vs. single operator industry for regulated online gambling creates more revenue. As one example, dollars wagered on licensed sportsbooks in Washington, DC amounted to almost $40.6 million3 for August 2024.
That was the first month of four online sportsbooks being available throughout the District of Columbia. Previously, brands were geofenced to small radii of their physical locations and the only online sportsbook available throughout the District was the DC Lottery’s partner.
For comparison, bettors wagered just $8.1 million in August 2023 under the former framework. That shows the potential of an open vs. single-operator market.
However, a completely open market would carry a risk for Seminole Gaming in that a competitor could outperform its platform. Under the probable compact terms, though, Hard Rock would win either way.
Hard Rock gets the best of everything
It’s unclear what terms a potential “licensing” deal with BetMGM Casino or DraftKings Casino would look like. Options include a revenue-sharing agreement, a market access fee, or a combination of those two.
As Allen hinted, it could be a win for all parties involved. Companies like Caesars or FanDuel would gain access to Florida’s population, while Hard Rock would get its cut no matter how the market shakes out.
Floridians should not expect access to any of these online casino platforms soon. Negotiations between Florida and the Seminole Tribe on a new compact amendment have not even begun, as far as the Tribe has confirmed.
Furthermore, even if the parties do execute such an amendment, the possibility of court challenges remains. It could still be years before any regulated online casino apps become available in the Sunshine State.
As far as brands beyond Hard Rock go, though, the state isn’t completely dark for them. They would just have to pay whatever Seminole Gaming asks to see the light.