Share 
State of Play’s TL;DR
- A Bernstein report says prediction market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035.
- The firm bases its estimate on exchange-style trading, institutional participation, and broader product expansion.
Bernstein Financial Services says prediction markets could grow into a $10 trillion market by 2035, up from about $50 billion in 2025, as exchange-style trading attracts new users, institutions, and broader activity beyond sports.
According to the firm’s latest research, the category has already reached roughly $300 billion year-to-date in 2026 and could finish the year near $410 billion. The report argues that prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbooks because they function more like exchanges, with prices set by supply and demand rather than a house edge.
Growth is shifting beyond sports
Sports still dominates current volume, accounting for about 61% of trading in 2025 and roughly 75% year-to-date in 2026, according to Bernstein. But the firm expects that mix to change by 2035, with sports falling to about 38% of volume while financial assets rise to about 49%.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said prediction markets are “expanding the customer acquisition funnel and creating incremental sports trading liquidity.” The report also said about 80% of Kalshi users have never used a sports betting app, while overlap between DraftKings Predictions and DraftKings online sports betting is around 1%.
Kalshi held about 60% of global prediction market share year-to-date in 2026, up from 35% in 2025, Bernstein said. Polymarket’s international platform, meanwhile, grew from $1.1 billion in monthly trading volume in August 2025 to $4.6 billion in August 2026.
Operators and institutions are building around the model
The report points to a fast-developing operator and infrastructure race. Robinhood entered prediction markets in Q4 2024, later expanding through Kalshi and then through its own exchange venture. Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group also acquired MIAXdx, rebranded it as Rothera, and kept a 90% controlling interest.
Rothera self-certified its first contracts in May 2026 and launched economic data and baseball markets. Bernstein also highlighted growing institutional activity, including Kalshi’s first institutional block trade in April 2026 and Polymarket’s first on-chain institutional block trade in June 2026.
Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion post-money valuation, while Tradeweb announced a strategic partnership and minority equity investment in Kalshi.
The biggest unknown is regulation
For players and industry watchers, the main takeaway is that growth projections still depend on unresolved legal questions. Bernstein said the dispute over sports event contracts now involves the CFTC, state gaming regulators, federal and state courts, tribal interests, and potentially Congress.
The report noted that the Ninth Circuit ruled sports event contracts are not swaps and refused Commodity Exchange Act pre-emption of Nevada gaming law, creating a circuit split with the Third Circuit. Bernstein said 2027 is more likely to be a transition year, with the ultimate solution increasingly shifting to 2028.
That means the market may be growing quickly, but access, product scope, and operator strategy in the US could still hinge on future court rulings and regulatory decisions.
Based on reporting by Rita for TechFlow.
