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State of Play’s TL;DR
- Only 13% of sports fans in a new survey said they wager on prediction markets.
- More than 20% said they had never heard of prediction markets.
Prediction markets may be getting more attention in gambling policy circles, but a new survey suggests they are still far from mainstream with sports fans.
Only 13% of respondents said they currently use a prediction market platform, while 81% said both sportsbooks and prediction markets should have regulatory measures in place.
FGS Global said its latest report, based on an online survey of 2,030 sports fans conducted with RepData from April 29 to May 8, found limited familiarity and mixed sentiment around prediction markets.
The takeaway is straightforward: Public awareness still appears to lag behind the policy debate.
Low usage and uneven public trust
According to the survey, 21% of respondents said they had never heard of prediction markets. Another 33% said they were aware of them but had no interest in trading.
FGS Global wrote that “despite ongoing media attention, prediction markets have moved into mainstream conversation ahead of public trust.”
The report also found 43% of respondents believe prediction markets will have a negative impact on society, compared with 28% who said they would have a positive impact.
The findings line up with a separate Meredith Poll in North Carolina. That survey of 1,022 registered voters, conducted from July 1 to July 8, found 47% were unfamiliar with prediction markets, 28% were somewhat familiar, and 15% were very familiar.
Regulation remains the clearest point of agreement
While respondents were split on how prediction markets should be overseen, the broader message was that they should be regulated.
The FGS Global survey found 26% favored regulation by an agency such as the CFTC on a nationwide basis. Another 25% said state government legislation was the best approach, while 23% said Congress should pass federal legislation.
Just 7% said President Donald Trump should take executive action.
For operators and policymakers, that leaves a familiar US gambling question in play: where the line should be drawn between federal oversight and state control. As FGS Global put it, “that lack of consensus creates both challenges and opportunities.”
The firm also said companies in the space are shaping their reputations before the rules are fully settled, adding that “companies that demonstrate integrity and transparency now will help define the rules that govern their next era.”
Based on reporting by Justin Byers for SBC Americas.
