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State of Play’s TL;DR
- A Reuters/Ipsos survey found 60% of Americans oppose using prediction markets to wager on election results, with broad bipartisan resistance.
- US regulators and states continue to clash over platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 60% of Americans oppose using prediction markets to wager on election results.
The findings arrive as federal and state officials continue to fight over whether platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi should be regulated as financial products or gambling.
A nationwide online survey of 4,506 US adults, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 with a margin of error of about two percentage points, showed opposition to election betting across party lines. Reuters reported that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they opposed these markets.
Poll shows wider resistance beyond election markets
The Reuters/Ipsos survey found skepticism was not limited to election contracts. Respondents also opposed betting on US military actions by 65% to 8%, and opposed wagers on government policy announcements or decisions by 63% to 9%.
The poll also found that three-quarters of respondents viewed wagering on real-world events through prediction markets as a form of gambling, while 8% disagreed.
On sports-related event contracts, 43% said they opposed prediction market sports betting and 29% said they supported it.
The survey also showed overwhelming agreement that elected officials should stay out of the market. Reuters said 93% of Democrats and 89% of Republicans considered it inappropriate for members of Congress or their staff to bet on political events. In April, the Senate barred senators, staff, and other officers from using prediction markets.
Pressure builds in the fight over Polymarket and Kalshi
The polling lands in the middle of a growing jurisdictional dispute over prediction markets in the US. Reuters said the Trump administration is pursuing federal rules for the industry, while states are challenging that approach.
At the center of the dispute is whether these contracts fall under federal commodities oversight or state gambling law. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asserted jurisdiction over prediction markets as financial products, while state regulators argue the platforms facilitate gambling and should be regulated under state gaming rules.
Polymarket and Kalshi both offer markets on elections and other real-world events, alongside sports. The companies have said they use safeguards against misconduct and work with authorities, including by referring suspicious accounts. Reuters also noted that Polymarket has said more than 90% of visits to its platform are to view markets rather than trade.
Legal experts cited by Reuters said the conflict over which rules apply could ultimately reach the Supreme Court.
Based on reporting by readwrite.
