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A lawsuit filed in Missouri could stop the sports betting initiative from appearing on the November ballot.
The lawsuit was filed in Cole County Circuit Court ahead of Thursday’s 10-day deadline to challenge the certification following the Secretary of State’s Aug. 13 announcement. Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft is listed as the defendant.
According to their LinkedIn profiles, plaintiff Jacqueline Wood owns JWood Political Strategies, a campaign and governmental consulting and lobbying firm. Plaintiff Blake Lawrence has a consulting company and previously served as chief counsel for the Missouri Senate.
A hearing was scheduled for Sept. 5. Judge Cottom Walker was assigned to the case. If the circuit court finds truth in any of the claims and reverses Ashcroft’s certification, the Missouri sports betting initiative will not be on the Nov. 5 ballot.
Missouri lawsuit centers around district requirements
Missouri has a unique way of qualifying initiatives based on signature verification. It’s not about the total number of signatures verified. This explanation of the initiative process from the Secretary of State breaks down how constitutional amendments require signatures from 8% of voters from the last gubernatorial election in six of eight congressional districts.
Ashcroft certified that the initiative did have sufficient valid signatures in six of eight districts (proponents essentially punted two districts). District 1 results were very close, as 55,864 signatures were submitted but just 25,714 were found valid. That is just 82 more votes than the 25,632 required in the district.
The lawsuit alleges that certification erred in four ways:
- Ashcroft should have divided the total number of voters in the 2020 election and made signature requirements in each district equal rather than taking the 8% from each individual district’s voting total.
- That deprived Wood of her equal protection rights under the 14th Amendment by decreasing the weight of a District 3 voter’s signature compared to District 1.
- Missouri underwent redistricting since the 2020 election. Ashcroft used the prior congressional district map as of the 2020 election to determine signature requirements. Basing them on current district boundaries would have required more signatures than were validated in District 1 and District 5.
- In the closest districts, District 1 and District 5 (decided by 1,154 signatures), local election authorities improperly counted signatures.
Lawsuit could be sign of opposition campaign
Tired of years of legislative failures, the St. Louis Cardinals led a group of six Missouri sports teams in filing the initiative. However, online gaming operators FanDuel and DraftKings funded the $10 million campaign to qualify the initiative for the ballot. It’s set to be Amendment 2 on the ballot.
Polling on the Missouri sports betting initiative casts doubt on its viability.
In its news release on the initiative certification, the Winning for Missouri Education proponent campaign cited more than 60% voter support in polls conducted in March and April. However, a June poll from Emerson College/Nexstar Media showed 38.3% in support, 35.4% against and 26.3% unsure.
Passage requires more than 50% voter support in November.
Polling so far has not accounted for the impact of a negative campaign. In 2022, some of these same proponents initially cited 60% polling for a California online sports betting initiative Prop 27. After a hostile and expensive negative campaign led by Indian tribes, the initiative finished with just 17% of the vote.
Missouri polling shows the initiative likely can’t withstand an opposition campaign.
The lawsuit could be a precursor for a negative campaign, allowing opponents to spend a fraction of the money to get the initiative off the ballot.
