Share 
This week’s prediction market roundup on Polymarket covers five contracts spanning US-Iran diplomacy, the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the 2027 NFL championship and the 2028 presidential nominations.
The latest market pricing shows expectations for near-term US-Iran talks continuing to weaken, while Scottie Scheffler remains the FedEx Cup favorite and the Los Angeles Rams lead the NFL championship market.
In politics, J.D. Vance still leads the Republican field, while Gavin Newsom holds a narrower advantage in an increasingly competitive Democratic market.
Sign Up & Unlock Your Offer at FanDuel Predicts
Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone
Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More
Sign Up & Unlock Your Offer at FanDuel Predicts
Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone
Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus
Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World
Use Bonus Code: PLAYUSA
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus
Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World
Use Bonus Code: PLAYUSA
America's #1 Sports Prediction Market
Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts
Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More
Use Exclusive Code: PLAYUSA
America's #1 Sports Prediction Market
Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts
Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More
Use Exclusive Code: PLAYUSA
Huge Range of CFTC-Approved Markets (Sports, Tech, and More)
Compete with Others & Climb the Leaderboards
No User Limiting on Trades
Huge Range of CFTC-Approved Markets (Sports, Tech, and More)
Compete with Others & Climb the Leaderboards
No User Limiting on Trades
Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards
America’s All-In-One Trading Platform
Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly
Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards
America’s All-In-One Trading Platform
Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly
Get $150 in Bonuses Paid Over 14 Days
DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide
Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More
Get $150 in Bonuses Paid Over 14 Days
DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide
Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More
US-Iran formal talks remain uncertain in August
Polymarket‘s contract following the next round of US-Iran peace talks shows declining probabilities across the August dates, while Sept. 30 remains the leading outcome. The contract currently places a 2% probability on talks taking place by Aug. 15, 22% by Aug. 31 and 54% by Sept. 30.
The market has generated about $8.98 million in total volume. Contract prices currently sit around:
- 2 cents for the Aug. 15 “Yes” outcome
- 22 cents for Aug. 31
- 54 cents for Sept. 30
The movement represents a continued shift away from the nearest deadlines. Polymarket’s rules require qualifying talks to involve senior US and Iranian representatives in a formal, in-person diplomatic process. Technical or staff-level meetings alone do not qualify.
Reuters reported Aug. 9 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran would not engage in direct talks with the United States while Washington continued to violate the interim agreement reached in June. Indirect communications through intermediaries are continuing, however.
The contract requires a new senior-level US-Iran diplomatic round to take place in person, including through an authorized mediator. Technical or staff-level meetings alone do not qualify.
FedEx Cup market sees contenders change positions
Scottie Scheffler leads Polymarket’s FedEx Cup Playoffs contract at 28%, followed by Rory McIlroy at 14%.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju is next at 7.7%, with Russell Henley at 6.2%. Cameron Young, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Ryo Hisatsune and Sam Burns are each around 6%, while Xander Schauffele is at 5%. The contract has generated about $2.61 million in volume.
Other players have experienced sharper short-term movements following strong individual tournament performances, creating a wide gap between Scheffler and McIlroy and a tightly packed group behind them.
The market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 TOUR Championship, with Polymarket listing Sept. 15 as the deadline for a winner to be announced.
Rams still lead 2027 NFL championship market
The Los Angeles Rams remain the favorite to win the 2027 NFL championship at 15%. Seattle, however, has moved into second at 9%, followed by Buffalo at 8% and Baltimore at 7%.
Kansas City is next at 6%, while the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys are each at 5%. Total market volume has reached approximately $43.65 million.
Seattle’s move to 9% marks a notable change. The Seahawks were previously at 7%, tied with Baltimore, but have since moved ahead of both Buffalo and Baltimore in the contract market.
The Rams have held at 15%, maintaining a six-point lead over Seattle. With the 2026 NFL season still ahead, contract prices have substantial room to change as teams establish themselves.
The contract is scheduled to resolve based on the winner of the 2027 NFL championship, with Feb. 14, 2027, listed as the market end date.
Rubio gains ground in Republican nomination market
J.D. Vance remains the leading outcome in Polymarket’s Republican presidential nomination contract at 42.9%, while Marco Rubio has climbed to 27%. Ron DeSantis is around 3%, and Donald Trump is near 2%. The contract has generated more than $680 million in volume.
Vance’s contract price has declined from the mid-50% range seen earlier in the market’s history, while Rubio has moved substantially higher. The two Republicans have increasingly dominated the market, with DeSantis and the rest of the field well behind them.
The potential rivalry has also received attention outside the prediction market. According to news by Reuters, President Donald Trump said in June that Vance and Rubio working together on a 2028 ticket would be “very hard to beat.” Neither has formally declared a presidential campaign.
Newsom maintains narrow lead over Democratic field
Gavin Newsom remains the leading outcome in Polymarket’s Democratic presidential nomination contract at 19.4%. Jon Ossoff follows at 13.3%, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12.7% and Kamala Harris at 8.6%. Total volume has reached approximately $1.25 billion, making it the largest of the five contracts covered here.
Newsom’s lead is considerably narrower than during his strongest stretch. His contract price previously climbed into the high 30s before declining through the winter and spring. Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez have remained in the teens for much of the year, bringing them closer to Newsom.
The latest figures also show Newsom slightly higher than the previous 18% level, while Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez have moved lower.
Reuters reported in May that several Democrats were taking early steps toward potential 2028 presidential campaigns, including Newsom, Harris and Ocasio-Cortez, while Ossoff was also emerging as a potential contender. No candidate had formally entered the race.
With the nomination contract not scheduled to resolve until 2028, the market remains an early snapshot of a highly fluid Democratic field.
