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Editor’s note: PlayUSA contributors Grant Lucas, Nick Garcia, Marty Derbyshire and Dustin Gouker share their thoughts on the best Super Bowl LIV bets.
Party in the city where the heat is on, it’s time to dive into Super Bowl LIV betting before the game is gone. (Pardon the Will Smith song reference, we just had to.)
Indeed, the second-ever Big Game with state-sanctioned sports betting outside Nevada is about to kick off. And we’re as excited as anyone, so we’re putting skin in the game.
By no means will we call ourselves sharps. We won’t even tell you that what you’re about to read is even good advice. Heck, it probably shouldn’t read as advice at all.
But it’s Super Bowl betting. It’s not like we’re not going to bet. And we need some official log as a basis for either future boasting or roasting. So, here’s that record.
Pick two for Super Bowl betting: Moneyline, point spread, over/under
| Staff | Pick | DraftKings Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin | Chiefs moneyline/Over 54 | +235 | +247 |
| Grant | Chiefs -1.5/Under 54 | +265 | +270 |
| Marty | Chiefs moneyline/Chiefs -1.5 | -122/-110 | -128/-115 |
| Nick | 49ers moneyline/Over 54 | +280 | +275 |
Dustin: Chiefs moneyline/over 54. I actually got the opening line of over 52 here in Oregon, so I am happy about that development since the number climbed immediately. I am nowhere near a sharp sports bettor, so this is mostly betting with my heart. Would love for Andy Reid to win a title (I am an Eagles fan). And betting the under is the absolute worst thing to bet as a bettor because it’s not enjoyable to root against points being scored. So, root for the Chiefs to cover and score a lot of points? That seems like a win and something very likely to happen.
Grant: Chiefs -1.5/under 54. I like the Chiefs to win. As the spread is almost a pick’em, might as well go for the better payout. That’s never burned me before, he wrote sarcastically. The total is where I struggle. Of course, the popular money is on the over. Kansas City scores — a lot. And San Francisco can light it up, too. Right, Packer fans? But 12 of the past 15 games have finished with fewer than 54 points. Only 14 Super Bowls have ever gone over that total.
Marty: Chiefs moneyline/Chiefs -1.5. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense prove too much for a good-but-not-great Niners’ defense.
Nick: 49ers moneyline/over 54. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garropolo has the arm, the looks and is surrounded by talent. Not to mention the Niners have one of the best D lines in the NFL. DE Nick Bosa and Co. march on to victory. The Niners have a better defense than the Chiefs, hands-down, but that won’t stop Mahomes from scoring points. It will come down to a final stop on a third-and-15 later in the game. Expect this one to be a shootout.
What will be the result of the coin flip?
| Staff | Pick | DraftKings Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin | Tails | -103 | -103 |
| Grant | Heads | -103 | -103 |
| Marty | Heads | -103 | -103 |
| Nick | Tails | -103 | -103 |
Dustin: Tails. Only idiots bet on heads!
Grant: Heads. Obviously, it’s hard to ignore the trends. Tails has come up five of the last six times at the Super Bowl. But in Miami, the coin toss has landed heads in three of the last four games. So, obviously, I am overthinking this. Which is why I’m changing to tails. No, no, keep it heads. Wait … no … yeah, heads.
Marty: Heads. Isn’t it always heads?
Nick: Tails. Tails never fails. As a bonus, taking San Francisco to win the toss and the game, paying out +310.
What is the game’s first scoring play?
| Staff | Pick | DraftKings Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin | San Francisco FG | +440 | +400 |
| Grant | Kansas City FG | +400 | +380 |
| Marty | Kansas City TD | +175 | +175 |
| Nick | Kansas City TD | +175 | +175 |
Dustin: 49ers FG. I am going to take the longest odds on something that seems possible, which is a San Francisco FG at +440.
Grant: Chiefs FG. Kansas City hasn’t scored first in either of its playoff games this year. Heck, they haven’t even scored SECOND. I like the Chiefs to win the toss and march down the field, only to have San Fran’s defense clamp down in the red zone and force a field goal. This goes against everything that has happened with the Chiefs this postseason. But it’s the Super Bowl. Nothing is supposed to go as expected.
Marty: Chiefs TD. Mahomes and the Kansas City offense dominate from start to finish.
Nick: Chiefs TD. This is all but a lock if the Chiefs win the toss. Hell, it’s even a lock if they don’t win the toss.
Who scores the game’s first touchdown?
| Staff | Pick | DraftKings Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin | San Francisco TE George Kittle | +1000 | +900 |
| Grant | San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel | +1200 | +1000 |
| Marty | Kansas City TE Travis Kelce | +800 | +750 |
| Nick | Kansas City TE Travis Kelce | +800 | +750 |
Dustin: Kittle. Kittle at the longest odds of this group seems like a great bet if you have to pick one player. He was shut down in the NFC title game, and you can see the 49ers trying to establish him early.
Grant: Samuel. San Francisco’s attack is no longer under the radar. Kansas City will focus on shutting down the run game and tying up Kittle as much as they can. This frees up Jimmy Garoppolo and his top wide receiver. Samuel was second on the team in yard and TDs during the regular season. Garoppolo has targeted him nine times in 27 attempts. Samuel opens the scoring, and I skip to the bank.
Marty: Kelce. Too good a price to pass up on a TE that figures to be a major contributor.
Nick: Kelce. Arguably the best TE in the NFL right now, Kelce has waited a long time for this moment. I expect Andy Reid to draw up something special if the Chiefs get inside the 20-yard line on their first drive. Kelce across the middle for the first TD of the game.
What will the color be of the Gatorade bath?
| Staff | Pick | DraftKings Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin | Red | +150 | +225 |
| Grant | Orange | +300 | +450 |
| Marty | Clear/water | +450 | +150 |
| Nick | Yellow/green/lime | +450 | +225 |
Dustin: Red. Andy Reid was drinking red Gatorade at a press conference leading up to the game. This is easy money.
Grant: Orange. You’d think it’d be red, what with that be the primary color for the Chiefs and Niners. But the game’s in Florida — in Miami, no less — where orange is an official color. Plus, orange Gatorade is the best Gatorade. Don’t at me.
Marty: Clear/water. DK is giving away money on this one considering the trend has been clear/water recently.
Nick: Lime green. Niners go with the classic and douse Kyle Shanahan with some lime green G2 in the final 10 seconds of the game.
Who will win the MVP?
| Staff | Pick | DraftKings Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin | Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes | +115 | +110 |
| Grant | Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes | +115 | +110 |
| Marty | Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes | +115 | +110 |
| Nick | San Francisco TE George Kittle | +1600 | +1800 |
Dustin: Mahomes. If KC wins, it would be hard to see a scenario where Mahomes doesn’t win this title, unless one of his offensive weapons goes off. There seems to be a lot of steam on Nick Bosa, as well. But I like the Chiefs to win, Mahomes to have a monster game, so I’ll take the short odds for the favorite.
Grant: Mahomes. It’s not a sexy pick by any means, but it may as well be a lock. This is a quarterback-driven league. It’s a quarterback-driven award. Since 2000, 12 QBs have taken home the MVP. And seven have done so over the last decade. But more than trends, this is Mahomes, a guy who is almost guaranteed four TD passes.
Marty: Mahomes. Here’s hoping they boost the price on this obvious choice for MVP before kickoff.
Nick: Kittle. While Kelce might be the best TE in the NFL, he won’t be the star of the night. That honor will go to Kittle, who has been a force of nature. Chiefs try body after body to cover him, but he carves up the Chiefs D for a pair of TDs and 130 receiving yards. Jimmy plays well, but Kittle secures the victory with clutch catches down the stretch. (As a bonus, betting on a TE to win the award pays +900. Never in the history of Super Bowl MVPs has a TE won the award. Forget Jimmy vs. Mahomes; the real matchup is Kelce vs. Kittle. Expect Kittle to break hearts and odds to claim the award for the first time in history.)
