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State of Play’s TL;DR
- The American Gaming Association predicts sportsbook betting during the NFL season will be just a little over last year’s numbers.
- The group blames the stagnation on the rise of prediction markets.
The American Gaming Association expects $29.5 billion in regulated commercial sportsbook wagers during the 2026 NFL season, barely above last season’s $29.4 billion.
The group says prediction markets are pulling activity away from state-regulated sportsbooks and creating new tax, age-limit, and oversight concerns.
The AGA’s latest outlook suggests NFL betting is still massive in the US, but the easy growth phase may be fading. With the 2026 season set to open on Sept. 9, the industry’s main trade group is framing prediction markets as a direct challenge to the state-regulated sports betting model.
AGA points to slower sportsbook growth
According to the AGA, betting handle at US sportsbooks rose 4% from September 2025 through May 2026, down sharply from 14% growth in the same period a year earlier. Missouri was the only state to launch legal sports betting during that stretch, limiting expansion from new market openings.
AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said the broader issue is the rise of event-contract platforms tied to sports outcomes.
“We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth. But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
The trade group estimates more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue has shifted toward prediction markets since 2025.
Tax, age-limit, and consumer-protection concerns
The AGA argues prediction markets operate under a different framework than regulated sportsbooks, including lower age thresholds. It said users ages 18 to 20 accounted for about $5.1 billion of Kalshi’s volume, while regulated sportsbooks generally require bettors to be 21 in most states.
The World Casino News article notes that in 35 of the 40 US jurisdictions where sports betting is legal, people in that age range are below the minimum legal betting age.
Miller said those platforms are “dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment.” He also said prediction market operators are not following state and tribal sports betting laws or paying state gaming taxes.
Survey data cited in the report show how visible those platforms have become. In a survey of 926 US NFL bettors, 84% said they were aware of prediction markets and 60% said they planned to trade, buy, or sell event contracts this year.
NFL prediction market trading volume could reach $36.8 billion this season, while Eilers & Krejcik Gaming found August NFL trading volume was 4.6 times higher than a year earlier.
Court fights in Nevada and New Jersey could shape the next phase
The regulatory fight is also moving through the courts. A federal appeals court ruled that Nevada could enforce its gaming regulations to stop Kalshi from offering sports trading in the state. New Jersey has separately asked the US Supreme Court to review the broader dispute over whether states can regulate prediction markets.
The NFL has also raised concerns about the types of contracts being listed. In a letter to operators, NFL chief compliance officer Sabrina Perel wrote:
“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges.”
For bettors, operators, and state regulators, the key question is no longer whether prediction markets are part of the conversation. It is whether they will remain outside the same rules, taxes, and age limits that govern traditional sportsbooks.
Based on reporting by Vanja Mitic for World Casino News.
