Share 
State of Play’s TL;DR
- Flutter shares fall by almost 4%.
- Investors may believe that prediction markets could take betting volume from traditional sportsbooks.
Flutter Entertainment shares recently fell nearly 4% and were headed for a fourth straight losing session as investors reacted to fast growth in prediction markets and the possibility that those platforms could take activity from traditional sportsbooks.
Flutter owns FanDuel Sportsbook, one of the two companies that, along with DraftKings Sportsbook, controls about 78% of the US online sports betting market. According to Bank of America, prediction market volume reached about $10 billion in June, while the share of DraftKings users who also use Kalshi rose to 9.5% from 4% in January.
Bank of America said prediction markets could pull meaningful volume away from regulated sportsbooks. The firm kept neutral ratings on both Flutter and DraftKings.
Clearer picture should emerge on Aug. 5
For FanDuel specifically, Bank of America estimated EBITDA at $634 million, well below Flutter’s guidance of roughly $970 million. That gap appears to be one reason investors are watching whether newer betting-style platforms change the competitive picture in US gambling.
Flutter, however, has said cannibalization has been limited so far. The company also pointed to product changes aimed at supporting growth, including a new loyalty program and Bet Protect+, which lets customers insure bets for a small fee. Flutter said adoption of Bet Protect+ has been running at double its original expectations.
The company’s most recent operating figures showed Q1 US revenue up 6% year over year, even as active monthly players slipped 1%.
The bigger question is whether prediction markets keep growing at a pace that forces major sportsbooks to adjust pricing, features, or customer-retention strategies ahead of football season.
The next key date is Aug. 5, when Flutter is expected to report earnings. That update could give a clearer read on whether management still sees only limited overlap with prediction markets.
Based on reporting by Aditya Raghunath for TIKR.
