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State of Play’s TL;DR
- U.S. residents 18 to 21 have traded more than $5 billion on Kalshi this year.
- The prediction market firm says 18- to 21-year-olds account for about 3% of transactions on the platform.
Americans ages 18 to 21 have traded about $5.4 billion on Kalshi since the start of 2026. That’s intensifying the fight over whether prediction markets should remain open to adults under 21.
Kalshi and similar platforms operate under federal rules that generally allow access from age 18. Casinos and legal sports betting, meanwhile, are restricted to 21 and older in most states. That gap has become a flashpoint as sports-related prediction market contracts grow and industry opponents argue the products function much like unlicensed sports betting.
Kalshi said users ages 18 to 21 account for 3.14% of all transactions on the platform. The company’s total 2026 trading volume has already exceeded $173 billion. About 80% of that volume comes from sports contracts and parlay bets.
Of the under-21 activity, roughly $3.9 billion came from sports contracts and parlays.
Sports contracts are driving the age-policy dispute
The age debate is not limited to casino competitors. The NCAA, NFL, NBA, PGA Tour, and other leagues have called for the minimum age for trading prediction contracts to be raised to 21.
Bill Miller, president of the American Gaming Association, said prediction markets offer “a backdoor route to sports betting” in places where the legal gambling age is 21. The association argues Kalshi’s sports contracts are effectively unlicensed sports bets.
Jonathan Michaels, head of a gaming industry consulting firm, said the World Cup disrupted the normal summer slowdown and could help keep trading elevated into football season, which he said will “inevitably affect students.”
Kalshi says it has internal restrictions on account funding and warnings for users whose behavior may indicate risky trading. The company also contributed $2 million to the National Council on Problem Gambling.
Courts, regulators, and rivals are split on a 21-plus standard
The responsible gambling dispute is also playing out in court. The operation of prediction market platforms is being challenged with support from 44 state attorneys general, dozens of Native American tribes, and casino representatives.
At the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has not supported a 21-plus requirement and is preparing rules that would keep access available at 18.
Some competitors are already taking the stricter route voluntarily. Fanatics limits its prediction market service to users 21 and over. Novig, which was approved by the regulator in June and launched this month, also accepts only users 21 and older.
Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said the company adopted that policy after hearing concerns from the NCAA and other leagues, adding that students are “particularly vulnerable to irresponsible trading behavior.” The company has recorded $450 million in trading volume and recently partnered with the New York Mets.
Based on reporting by Mezha.
