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X (formerly Twitter) is looking to create a “world without prediction market spam,” according to head of product Nikita Bier. The platform is cracking down on prediction markets, a move underscored by Kalshi’s decision to abandon its affiliate badges.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have faced accusations of operating as casinos while circumventing conventional laws and regulations. A political fight is brewing over the legal classification of these platforms. Several state regulators are already pursuing legal action, with multiple pending lawsuits. For example, Nevada is suing Kalshi to block specific prediction market contracts.
X’s new anti-spam policy targets affiliates
The terms apply to all ads and sponsored content promoting sports betting, online casinos, lotteries, and other activities involving financial risk. The shift is a response to concerns from regulatory bodies, advertisers, and users regarding the financial impact of gambling-related content on vulnerable audiences.
Notably, the policy has not yet officially taken effect, and X has not specified a start date. However, Kalshi—one of the largest prediction markets—has already removed affiliate badges from the accounts of its influencers and partners. These badges served as visible markers for those who promoted event contracts under revenue-sharing agreements rather than as formal employees.
Multiple accounts have confirmed the removal of their badges. The “Prediction News” page posted that every affiliated account had lost its designation and was under review. The post read:
“NEW: Affiliate Kalshi traders have informed us that every account affiliated with @KalshiTrade has lost their badge as it’s under review. ‘YOU ARE NO LONGER AN AFFILIATE OF KALSHI TRADERS.’ We will provide updates on this BREAKING story as we get more updates.”
Bier also addressed some accounts directly. In a conversation with one affected user, she warned affiliates about posting undisclosed paid promotions. “Add a follow-up reply disclosing that this is a paid promotion for Kalshi. Otherwise, this will result in a suspension,” she wrote.
The account owner claimed the specific post was not sponsored but acknowledged broader partnerships with Kalshi. Bier responded: “Thank you for informing the public that the other posts are also undisclosed ads.”
Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket affiliates still have their badges intact. Polymarket previously announced an official partnership with X and an agreement to integrate prediction market data directly into the social network.
The 9th circuit battle over prediction markets
State regulators are also increasing pressure on prediction markets. Mike Selig, the newly appointed chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), weighed in on the legal landscape last week. The CFTC filed an amicus brief in a case originally brought by Crypto.com, which has reached the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit. The brief asserts that prediction markets fall exclusively under CFTC jurisdiction.
“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear: We will see you in court,” Selig said.
How automation is reshaping prediction market efficiency
A heated debate continues over what is acceptable in these markets. Allegations of insider trading are common, with some arguing the practice is “more of a feature than a bug.” Furthermore, many users are turning to AI to exploit market glitches.
Recently, a fully automated bot executed 8,894 trades on short-term crypto prediction contracts without human intervention, netting approximately $150,000. This development suggests two possibilities: Either the bot exploited a specific price flaw—as suggested by posts circulating on X—or prediction markets have evolved into a new frontier for algorithmic finance.
Dune reports that Kalshi has processed approximately $42.7 billion in trading volume to date. According to Cryptopolitan, the platform processed $6.8 billion this month alone, much of which was driven by Super Bowl activity.
