Share 
Despite closing 2025 with strong momentum, Flutter Entertainment issued a cautious profit outlook for the year ahead, missing market expectations due to a cooling stretch in US betting activity.
The company behind FanDuel set a 2026 profit target well below analyst forecasts. Following the Feb. 26 report, investors reacted by sending Flutter shares down more than 9% in after-hours trading.
Flutter said it expects core profit to grow 4% in 2026 to approximately $2.97 billion. While the company reported a 21% jump in core profit for 2025, analysts tracked by LSEG SmartEstimate had projected roughly $3.5 billion for 2026. The disparity highlights a significant gap between market optimism and the company’s internal projections.
The revised targets put a spotlight on the US, where FanDuel remains the market leader but faces an increasingly complex operating environment.
The “recycling” effect: Why NFL betting handle slowed
Flutter attributed its conservative guidance primarily to lower customer engagement in the US during the fourth quarter of 2025, a trend that has bled into early 2026. This follows a period where the company outperformed rivals in “hold”—taking more money from American football bettors due to a run of favorable sports results.
A high hold can be a double-edged sword: When bettors lose more than expected, they often reduce their activity in subsequent weeks. Flutter’s commentary suggests this dynamic impacted its US customer base.
The company also noted that interest waned during key NFL playoff games because the final stages of the season lacked the “marquee names” required to sustain casual fan attention. For a company heavily reliant on NFL betting handle, a lackluster postseason translates directly into a significant revenue hit, as professional football remains the primary engine of the US market.
FanDuel’s new loyalty program: A pivot in retention strategy
According to a report by Reuters, Flutter CEO Peter Jackson admitted the company did not execute its “generosity strategy”—the promotions and bonuses used to retain players—as effectively as it should have.
The admission suggests management is not blaming the slowdown entirely on sports results. Jackson said FanDuel plans to overhaul its customer rewards ahead of the 2026-27 NFL season, including a new loyalty program scheduled to launch in the second quarter.
The move marks a shift in the maturing US sports betting market. While early growth was driven by aggressive sign-up offers to acquire new users, the current phase relies on retention—keeping users active even when the sports calendar produces less excitement.
Beyond sports: FanDuel Predicts targets all 50 states
The lower forecast also accounts for increased investment in Flutter’s prediction markets business, launched in late December 2025 with CME Group.
Prediction markets allow users to wager on the outcomes of events ranging from politics and economics to entertainment. Flutter said FanDuel Predicts now offers non-sports markets in all 50 states and sports-related prediction markets in 18 states, including California, Texas, and Florida, where traditional sports betting remains illegal.
While the expansion offers a foothold in restricted markets, it comes at a high price. Flutter expects this investment to reduce 2026 core profit by the upper end of its $200 million to $300 million projected range.
A reset year for the market leader
FanDuel still holds a 41% share of the US market, a dominant position Jackson emphasized during the report. However, the 2026 outlook serves as a reminder that scale does not insulate a company from execution risk.
The year ahead appears to be a “reset” for the industry leader as it navigates a triple threat of pressures: cooling engagement, promotional recalibration, and heavy capital expenditure in new market categories.
