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State of Play’s TL;DR
- Flutter posted strong Q4 revenue and EBITDA growth but reported a sharp fall in net income.
- This quarter underscores Flutter’s pivot toward the US – driven by FanDuel strength and new prediction market offerings – even as it exited India under new regulation.
Flutter reported group revenue of $4.74 billion for the three months to December, a 25% year-on-year rise.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 27% to $832 million and margins edged to 17.6%. Average monthly players rose 3% to 15.1 million despite the company withdrawing from India’s real‑money market after the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025. It recorded a $556 million non‑cash impairment linked to the Indian exit.
Net income tumbled to $10 million, down from $156 million a year earlier, with Flutter citing higher tax charges, increased interest costs and non‑cash amortization.
The group also launched FanDuel Predicts, a nationwide (for select markets) prediction market product in partnership with CME Group.
India exit lessens profits
The US was the engine behind Flutter’s Q4 growth. US revenue rose 33% and Flutter held roughly 41% of sportsbook GGR and 28% of online casino share across regulated states.
For U.S. players, the key takeaways are:
- More product choice: FanDuel Predicts offers event trading and non‑sports markets, aimed at recreational players and customers in areas without regulated sportsbooks.
- Limited cannibalization: Flutter’s internal review found no meaningful shift away from its sportsbook, with any betting‑volume impact expected in the low single digits.
- Revenue sharing and costs: CME Group takes around half of gross Predicts revenue, and Flutter expects to invest heavily – forecasting Predicts losses toward the upper end of a $200–$300 million EBITDA range in 2026.
For operators, the results signal capital reallocation to US growth opportunities and highlight how regulatory shifts (the India exit) can rapidly change profit outlooks.
Based on reporting by Ansh Pandey for Sigma.
