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Prediction platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini are making waves in the betting and tech industries. Though the companies offering such platforms shy away from the betting label, the similarities are hard to ignore. A recent partnership between Kalshi and SelfExclude from IC360 further cements prediction markets as, at the very least, betting-adjacent.
Kalshi is the first prediction market operator to integrate the SelfExclude tool into its platform. It’s a significant milestone for several reasons.
How IC360’s SelfExclude operates
IC360’s SelfExclude tool differs from the standard options found at sportsbooks or online casinos. By signing up, users opt for self-exclusion across all partnered platforms. If a user signs up to exclude themselves from Kalshi, they are also barred from additional IC360 partners.
Kalshi was the first major prediction space participant to sign up for the program, but similar companies reportedly have deals in progress, including Polymarket, Robinhood and ProphetX.
The process requires users to verify their identity (name, date of birth and ID) and choose an exclusion period. The data is encrypted; platforms like Kalshi check user identities against the list without accessing personal details. The operator receives a simple “yes/no” match to determine whether the user should be allowed to trade.
Moving beyond state-specific restrictions
In the United Kingdom—long a blueprint for US gambling regulations—self-exclusion is available for all licensed operators. Players do not need to toggle individual exclusion periods for every operator.
In the US, piecemeal regulation and state-by-state legislation have made this difficult. While operators abide by state laws, no central federal law requires a “one-stop” self-exclusion option. IC360 is filling that gap, but only for partnered providers.
Standard US betting platforms offer self-exclusion, but these are usually state-specific and do not work across multiple platforms. Regulators often find it difficult or legally complex to share exclusion lists across state lines. The result is a massive system with equally large gaps. While the theory of self-exclusion is noble, the practice often leaves much to be desired.
Kalshi holds a unique advantage as a federally regulated platform operating with Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval. The partnership with IC360 gives Kalshi users the rare ability to self-exclude from the platform nationally.
If the model succeeds and competitors follow, the impact could be massive. However, the American capitalist system may present hurdles; businesses often move faster than “snail-paced” regulators. The hope is that the tool provides a secure way to allow nationwide self-exclusion, eventually driving federal-level change.
The potential hidden impact: Defining prediction markets
While the partnership is a positive step, a deeper implication exists: The move to enable self-exclusion inextricably links prediction markets to betting. Operators have vehemently denied such comparisons, favoring terms like “trading” and “contracts” over “betting” and “wagers.”
This discrepancy is already causing legal friction. New York and Illinois are among the states taking action to bar prediction markets from offering sports contracts, arguing they constitute unlicensed sports betting. Kalshi is threading the needle, attempting to maintain a “financial product” narrative while adopting gambling-style consumer protections.
Will other operators follow Kalshi’s lead?
When my editor asked if this was “enough,” I answered with another question: Enough for what?
It is certainly a step in the right direction. It would be a landmark day for responsible gambling measures in the industry if all operators united under a single national self-exclusion tool, but that reality remains distant.
For now, it is a game of “hurry up and wait.” How will the Kalshi move fare among predictors? Which operators will follow? Will traditional gambling giants take notice? Most importantly, will regulators eventually get on the same page? These questions remain, and the industry will have to wait for the answers.
