Share 
State of Play’s TL;DR
- Kalshi and allied prediction market firms are dramatically increasing lobbying and political contributions as lawmakers push legislation to curb sports-style wagers.
- The fight pits a well-funded tech and crypto-backed coalition against traditional casino interests, with regulators, courts and Congress likely deciding the future of federally regulated prediction markets.
US Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) introduced a bill last week aimed at banning federally regulated prediction markets like Kalshi from offering sports wagers.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour publicly blamed casino interests for prompting the move. Public filings show Kalshi spent about $1 million on lobbying in 2025, and has boosted direct donations and hiring of prominent lobbying firms, including Miller Strategies (roughly $430,000) and Lincoln Policy Group (about $180,000).
Kalshi helped found the Coalition for Prediction Markets, joined by Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Underdog, and has secured amicus support from Coinbase and Paradigm in legal fights. Analysts note the coalition’s deep-pocketed backers (venture capital and crypto firms) give prediction markets sustained political clout, even as casino, tribal, and state sportsbook groups mount their own counter-efforts.
Court fights will continue
If Congress or state lawmakers succeed, prediction exchanges could lose the ability to offer many sports wagers, limiting competition and preserving market share for traditional sports betting operators and tribal casinos.
Operators already see a split. Mainstream app-based sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics) have moved toward prediction products and distanced themselves from the American Gaming Association, while legacy casino operators and many tribes remain resolutely opposed.
Consumers may see fewer choices and slower innovation if restrictions hold. Financially, investors and crypto firms backing prediction markets are prepared for a protracted fight – meaning legal battles, lobbying, and state-level skirmishes will likely continue.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the White House have signaled support for the exchanges, making courtroom outcomes and administrative rulemakings central to the next phase.
Based on reporting by Dan Bernstein for Sportico.
