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Prediction market traders bounced between politics, IPO speculation, public health fears, entertainment markets, and even rocket launch forecasts this week as volatility picked up across several corners of Kalshi.
Political traders continued pushing impeachment odds for President Trump higher, while IPO markets saw growing confidence around AI company Anthropic potentially going public before the end of the year.
SpaceX launch expectations cooled slightly as traders repriced the company’s May schedule, hantavirus emergency fears continued collapsing after an early panic spike, and Drake’s new album, Iceman, spiked the market as traders increasingly bet on a massive first-week debut.
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Chance of impeachment down a bit
The Trump impeachment market has continued to climb, making it one of the most active long-term political contracts on Kalshi, with traders now pricing in a nearly 60% chance that President Trump will be impeached during his current term. The market currently sits at 59.4%, up more than 21 points overall, after steadily trending higher for most of the past year.
What stands out is how gradual the repricing has been. After spending late 2024 trading mostly in the mid-30% range, the contract began gaining momentum throughout 2025, eventually pushing above the 50% threshold and continuing into the low-to-mid 60s earlier this spring. While there’s been a recent pullback from those highs, traders still appear firmly convinced that impeachment is more likely than not.
Unlike some political contracts that spike sharply on individual headlines before fading, this market has shown a much more sustained upward trend. That suggests traders are increasingly viewing impeachment risk as tied to broader long-term political and legal pressures surrounding the administration rather than any single event. Even with recent volatility, the overall trajectory of the market has remained decisively upward.
Who will announce an IPO this year?
IPO speculation markets have turned into one of the more active corners of Kalshi lately, with traders constantly repricing which major private companies are most likely to finally announce plans to go public. Right now, Anthropic has emerged as the clear frontrunner, climbing to 77% and overtaking much of the field after a strong upward move over the past several weeks.
What’s interesting is how dramatically sentiment has shifted underneath the surface. Earlier in the year, Discord and Kraken were both trading at significantly higher probabilities, with Discord briefly pushing near 90% in January and Kraken consistently holding above 70%. Since then, both companies have steadily lost momentum. Discord has fallen back to 56%, while Kraken has dropped all the way to 43% after one of the sharpest selloffs in the market during March.
Anthropic’s rise likely reflects growing expectations that the AI boom could continue pushing major artificial intelligence firms toward public listings faster than originally expected. With OpenAI still remaining private and highly complicated structurally, traders increasingly appear to view Anthropic as one of the cleaner and more realistic AI IPO candidates. At the same time, Discord’s decline may reflect uncertainty around broader tech market conditions, while Kraken’s volatility continues to track the unpredictable regulatory environment surrounding crypto companies.
The market has become much more concentrated around AI-related optimism, with traders increasingly betting that the next major wave of IPOs could be driven more by artificial intelligence than by social platforms or crypto exchanges.
SpaceX launches in May
SpaceX launch markets have stayed surprisingly volatile throughout May as traders continuously adjust expectations around the company’s increasingly aggressive launch cadence. Earlier in the month, the market forecast briefly pushed above 13 launches before steadily drifting lower as scheduling uncertainty and timing delays began weighing on sentiment. The current forecast now sits around 11.8 launches for the month.
What’s interesting is how sharply the higher-end contracts have been repriced over the last week. The probability of SpaceX exceeding 12 launches has collapsed to just 16%, down nearly 60 points, showing that traders have largely abandoned expectations for an exceptionally active finish to the month. Meanwhile, the “Above 11” contract remains slightly favored at 62%, suggesting the market still expects SpaceX to clear that threshold, just not by much.
Even with the recent selloff, the broader market still reflects strong confidence in SpaceX’s launch pace compared to virtually every other space company globally. More than $660,000 has already traded on the contract, and the constant repricing highlights how closely traders are following launch schedules, delays, and mission timing as the month winds down.
Hantavirus craze, then drop
The hantavirus emergency market has continued collapsing as traders increasingly back away from the idea that the WHO will issue a formal Public Health Emergency of International Concern declaration this year. After launching with intense volatility earlier in May, the contract has now fallen to just 9.4%, marking one of the sharpest sentiment reversals across Kalshi’s public health markets this month.
In the first few days after the market opened, probabilities briefly surged above 40% as uncertainty and outbreak speculation drove heavy panic buying. But that momentum faded quickly. Since then, the contract has been in a near-constant downtrend, with each small rally getting sold off almost immediately as traders reassessed the likelihood of a global emergency declaration. The market has now stabilized below 10%, down more than 25% overall.
Despite the collapse in odds, the contract has still attracted nearly $1 million in volume, showing how aggressively traders initially reacted to the headlines. The broader trend now suggests the market sees hantavirus as a monitored public health issue rather than a realistic candidate for the WHO’s highest emergency designation.
The ‘Iceman’ cometh
Drake’s “Iceman” market has turned into one of the biggest entertainment trades on Kalshi this month, with traders aggressively repricing expectations for the album’s first-week performance as momentum around the release continues building. The market forecast now sits at roughly 503,000 album-equivalent units, up nearly 100,000 units overall after a major rally during the second half of May, after the album was finally released.
For most of the month, the market traded relatively steadily in the low-400K range before sentiment shifted dramatically around May 15. After a brief selloff pushed expectations below 380K, traders reversed aggressively, driving the forecast sharply higher over the next several days. Since then, the market has stabilized around the 480K–500K range, with the “Above 490K” contract now trading at 82%.
What stands out is how quickly confidence accelerated once traders started believing the release could perform closer to Drake’s biggest historical launches. The “Above 500K” contract has climbed 27 points to 42%, while expectations for truly massive numbers above 525K remain much lower at just 10%. With more than $750,000 already traded, the market has increasingly shifted from skepticism about the album’s commercial ceiling toward a growing belief that Iceman could still deliver one of the biggest first-week debuts of the year.
