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Prediction markets continue to expand across nearly every category, and this past week on Kalshi is a premier example of how wide that range has become. From early-round action at the RBC Heritage to long-term positioning on the 2028 Democratic nominee and ongoing speculation around major IPOs, traders are constantly reacting to both short-term results and long-term narratives.
Add in geopolitical uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz and shifting expectations for US GDP growth, and it is clear these markets now cover everything from sports to global macroeconomics. The volume and movement across these trades show how prediction markets are evolving—not just as a niche product, but as a real-time reflection of public sentiment regarding what happens next.
Here is a look at this week’s top movers.
RBC Heritage: Åberg leads as Scheffler sentiment slides
Fresh off the Masters week, traders have already shifted their focus to the RBC Heritage, and the action is picking up quickly. While it does not carry the same historical weight as Augusta, this tournament still draws significant volume, and the market is showing notable movement in the early stages.
Right now, Ludvig Åberg leads with an 18% implied probability after a strong showing throughout Round 1. Åberg has been steadily climbing, and charts suggest traders are buying into his momentum. Just behind him is Scottie Scheffler at 12%. Scheffler actually started higher but saw downward movement as the day progressed. It is a surprising shift considering Scheffler’s recent dominance, but such is golf: one slow round can trigger a fast market reaction.
Viktor Hovland is also worth watching at 8.5%, making a noticeable push upward to stay within striking distance. The spread across the top players remains relatively tight, keeping the market competitive heading into the weekend. With over $30 million in total volume already, this trade is seeing serious activity for an early-round market.
2028 Democratic nominee: Newsom leads amid AOC stability
Even though the election is years away, the 2028 Democratic nominee market has seen significant movement as sentiment shifts. Gavin Newsom leads at 26%, though his path has been volatile. After spending much of early 2025 in the mid-teens, he made a sharp jump into the 30% range mid-year before cooling off to his current position.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 10% and has remained much more stable. She climbed earlier in 2025 but has mostly leveled off since, showing only minor fluctuations. Jon Ossoff, now at 6.9%, entered the market later and has gradually built momentum, characterized by steady increases rather than sharp swings. With nearly $90 million in volume, this market moves more on perception and long-term speculation than on immediate breaking news.
OpenAI and Anthropic close the gap on Discord
The IPO market remains one of the more compelling long-term trades. Right now, Discord leads at 59%, followed closely by OpenAI at 57% and Anthropic at 56%, making this one of the tightest races on the board.
Discord has held the top spot for a while, but the journey has been rocky. It spent a large portion of previous trading sessions near the 80%–90% range before gradually settling at its current level. This drop highlights how quickly confidence can shift, even for a “near lock.”
Conversely, OpenAI has seen the opposite trend. It started much lower, slowly climbed into the 50% range, and has been trending upward recently, nearly closing the gap with Discord. Anthropic has been the most volatile of the three; it surged early, pulled back, and continues to bounce in the mid-range. With just over $1.2 million in total volume, the trade is smaller than others, but the tight spread makes it a key indicator of AI sector sentiment.
Predicting the Strait of Hormuz resolution
This remains one of the most volatile geopolitical trades. Traders are attempting to price in when shipping traffic will return to normal, but probabilities shift almost daily.
Currently, “Before July 1, 2026” leads at 65%, followed by “Before June 1” at 54% and “Before May 15” at 31%. All three timelines saw sharp spikes in early April before a quick pullback. Since then, the market has settled into a gradual climb for longer timelines, while confidence in a shorter-term resolution has faded. The “Before May 15” option has steadily declined, suggesting traders are skeptical of a quick fix. With over $3 million in volume, this trade remains highly reactive to global headlines.
Traders brace for softening Q1 US GDP
With the official GDP report due at the end of the month, this market has been trending downward, signaling a shift in economic expectations. Early forecasts sat near the 3% range, but the market has since seen a steady decline to a current forecast of approximately 2.1%.
Following a sharp drop in late February and a partial recovery in March, the trend has slowly drifted downward again. Looking at the specific ranges:
- “Above 1.5%” sits comfortably at 71%.
- “Above 2.0%” is effectively a coin flip at 52.9%.
- “Above 2.5%” has dropped to 30.2%.
While expectations are not collapsing, they are definitely softening as the release date approaches.
