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Markets saw major movement this week as March Madness intensified, 2028 presidential speculation surged, and the Paramount-Netflix saga reached its conclusion. Prediction markets are seeing record growth in 2026, with volume continuing to climb.
Here are the major trades and events shaping the markets this week:
March Madness 2026: Duke vs. Michigan
With the college basketball season peaking in March, related contracts have seen unprecedented volume. The primary focus remains on which team will secure the national title. Traders rallied behind Michigan from November through late February, but the tide has turned.
Duke has seized the top spot with a 25% probability on Kalshi. Michigan follows closely at 22%, though sentiment appears to be softening for the Great Lakes State. Arizona sits in third at 14%. With more than $38 million in total volume, the market is largely treating this as a two-horse race between the Blue Devils and the Wolverines.
Texas GOP Senate primary
Attention turned toward the Texas Republican Senate primary this week, where John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are locked in a tight contest on Kalshi. Cornyn surged to the lead around 11 a.m. on March 4.
The market remains skeptical, however. Many Kalshi participants are waiting for a formal endorsement from Donald Trump, which is expected to effectively decide the nomination. With $7 million in volume, this has become one of the most active trades of the week.
2028 Republican nominee forecast
While the next presidential inauguration is still nearly a year away, the race for the 2028 GOP nomination is already drawing significant capital. Total volume for the contract has surpassed $17 million.
- J.D. Vance: 42% probability
- Marco Rubio: 20% probability
- Ron DeSantis: 6% probability
Vance, the sitting vice president, has maintained the lead since the market opened in November 2024. Despite the two-year window before the primaries, traders are heavily favoring Vance’s incumbency and standing within the party.
Best AI at the end of 2026
Artificial intelligence remains a dominant sector for prediction volume. Kalshi settles this market based on the LM Arena Leaderboard, a crowdsourced platform that ranks models based on head-to-head performance.
Claude currently leads with a 41% probability, while Gemini and ChatGPT follow in second and third place, respectively. While Gemini held the top spot for much of the year, Claude gained significant traction over the past week. With approximately 300 days remaining before the trade settles, the $1.5 million market remains highly volatile.
The $111B battle for Warner Bros. ends
The protracted battle for Warner Bros. Discovery between Netflix and Paramount has reached a dramatic conclusion. While Netflix was long considered the frontrunner, Paramount’s $111 billion hostile takeover bid shifted the landscape.
On Feb. 27, it was announced that Paramount would move forward with the acquisition. Paramount’s probability on Kalshi jumped to 84% this week, while Netflix plummeted to 2%. Total volume for the contract reached $2.6 million as the market effectively declared Paramount the winner.
Outlook: The road ahead
As the 2026 election cycle and the collegiate postseason both accelerate, expect prediction market volumes to hit new record highs. We will continue to monitor how these real-time probabilities shift as we approach the final settlement dates for these high-stakes trades.
