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Spain and France will begin the 2026 World Cup as the clear favorites to lift the trophy – both among bettors and bookmakers – but with the tournament taking place on North American soil, the American betting public is backing the home team at a historically outsize clip.
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Spain and France Lead the Field
Spain is the consensus favorite across the sports betting marketplace at +450 (DraftKings), with France either co-favorite or second favorite at +450 to +500 depending on the book. BetMGM reports over 30% of its sports betting wagers and nearly half its total handle in the World Cup winner market going on Spain or France combined.
“I didn’t realize that this would be a steady stream of money on these teams,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “Those are the two favorites that have been very popular throughout in sports betting, but especially lately. Over the last week or so, those two are getting an influx of money.”
Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead Mark Bickerdike noted that Spain and France are “rightfully the two teams to beat” in the sports betting markets, pointing to a significant drop-off to the next tier: England (+700), Argentina (+950), and Brazil (+950).
Portugal Rising, USA a Dark Horse
One underdog drawing serious money across gambling sites is Portugal, which has shortened from 10-1 to +800 at DraftKings — and as short as +750 at other sportsbooks including FanDuel and BetMGM. Then there’s the United States at 60-1: despite those long-shot odds on gambling sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars Sportsbook, the USMNT is the eighth-most backed team by handle at DraftKings, buoyed by the home-crowd effect of a tournament hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico.
“People are going to want to watch them and hope for them to win and bet on them. Now that we’re having games in our country, and in close proximity in Mexico and Canada, I think it makes that aspect even bigger,” Avello said. “We’re going to put them up at a fair price and we’re going to let the bettors bet them.” That sentiment is echoed across major gambling sites, with BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook both reporting above-average ticket volume on the USMNT relative to their odds.
For historical context: the pre-tournament favorite has only won it all three times across gambling sites’ record books — West Germany in 1974, Brazil in 1994, and Spain in 2010.
The Longest of Long Shots: Haiti at 2,500-1
Haiti is tied for the longest winner odds at a staggering 2,500-1. One BetMGM bettor placed $1,000 on Haiti to win – a ticket worth $2.5 million if it cashes.
Current World Cup Winner Odds
| Team | Odds (DraftKings) |
| Spain | +450 |
| France | +450-+500 |
| England | +700 |
| Portugal | +800 |
| Argentina | +950 |
| Brazil | +950 |
| United States | +6000 |
| Haiti | +250000 |
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