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Meta is developing a standalone prediction market app internally code-named “Arena,” according to reporting from The New York Times. The project, reportedly considered a high-priority initiative by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, would allow users to predict the outcomes of real-world events through a points-based system rather than real-money wagering.
Additional reporting indicates that Meta has explored potential partnerships with prediction market companies Polymarket and Kalshi while developing the app. Sources familiar with the matter said that Arena remains in internal testing, and Meta has not confirmed a launch timeline.
Meta revisits prediction markets
Arena is not Meta’s first attempt to enter the prediction market space. In 2020, the company launched Forecast, a crowdsourced forecasting platform created during the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecast used a points-based prediction system but was shut down in 2022 after limited adoption.
Like Forecast, Arena is expected to avoid real-money wagering initially. However, reports suggest Meta has not ruled out introducing cash-based features in the future. Reuters reported that the company believes prediction markets could appeal strongly to younger users, particularly those ages 18 to 34.
Meta also plans to leverage its existing platforms — Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp — to promote the app to its billions of users worldwide.
Meta faces early scrutiny over gambling-style engagement
The project has already drawn criticism from lawmakers concerned about gambling-style engagement and online addiction.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., criticized Meta’s reported plans and pointed to legislation he supports, including the Kids Online Safety Act and the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act, which would restrict public officials from using insider information to profit from prediction markets.
Critics argue that prediction platforms can create opportunities for market manipulation and insider trading because users can speculate on political, financial and world events in real time.
Industry evolved into a multi-billion-dollar business
Meta’s interest reflects the rapid rise of prediction markets over the past two years. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi gained mainstream attention during the 2024 US election cycle and have since expanded into sports, entertainment and economic forecasting.
According to Business Insider, some analysts believe the industry could eventually become a trillion-dollar market.
The sector’s growth has attracted technology companies, gambling operators and crypto firms alike. At the same time, regulators continue debating whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling platforms, financial exchanges or an entirely separate category.
Zuckerberg searching for Meta’s next growth engine
Arena is reportedly part of Meta’s broader push to develop standalone products outside its core social media apps. Executives reportedly believe Facebook and Instagram are becoming increasingly saturated, leaving fewer opportunities for large-scale experimentation within the platforms themselves.
Meta has invested heavily in AI tools, creator products and experimental consumer apps as Zuckerberg searches for new growth opportunities. Still, insiders cautioned that Arena remains in development and could ultimately be delayed, reworked or canceled before launch.
