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Prediction markets are bigger than ever. Following a wave of major events in early 2026, traders are showing no signs of slowing down. With the football season concluded, the market is hunting for new opportunities and finding them everywhere.
From the Federal Reserve chair nomination to the battle for Warner Bros., here is what is moving the markets this week.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed chair?
President Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for Federal Reserve chair on Jan. 30. Despite the announcement, the market continues to trade on the nomination. Since the announcement, some traders have bet that Trump will either change his mind or reverse his decision.
The primary alternative candidate, according to traders, is Judy Shelton, who has inspired a dedicated community in the Kalshi comments. Shelton currently holds a 4% probability, but the “Judy Community” remains convinced she will eventually lead the Fed. With nearly $175 million in volume on the trade, speculators are still putting money behind her. However, with Warsh at a 95% probability, the Shelton backers appear likely to be disappointed.
What will Trump say at the State of the Union?
President Trump is known for fiery rhetoric across speeches and social media, and traders believe they can predict his vocabulary for the upcoming State of the Union address. While users frequently attempt to forecast the remarks of public figures, Trump remains a volatile subject.
Traders currently believe the phrase “fake news” is a likely inclusion, sitting at a 54% probability on Kalshi. Other top contenders include “Somalia” or “Somali” at 52% and “ballroom” at 50%. Trump’s tendency to subvert expectations makes these trades risky, but the results will be clear following the address.
Early 2028 presidential election outlook
The next presidential election is still two years away, but that hasn’t stopped traders from eyeing the finish line. Markets are already active not just for the nominees, but for the general election winner.
Vice President JD Vance currently leads the field at 24%, with Gavin Newsom trailing at 21%. While it may seem early to call an election 33 months out, the $12 million in total volume on Kalshi suggests significant interest in the long-term play.
Best Picture odds at the 2026 Oscars
The Oscars are still three weeks away, but the race for Best Picture is dominating trading volume. The primary battle is between One Battle After Another and Sinners.
The Leonardo DiCaprio-led One Battle After Another was a smash hit this year, earning critical and audience acclaim; it currently sits at 74% on Kalshi. Meanwhile, Sinners sits at a 15% probability. Despite the lower odds, the film—starring Michael B. Jordan and directed by Ryan Coogler—has garnered widespread praise. Whether the favorite or the underdog prevails, $10 million in volume hangs in the balance on March 15.
Warner Bros. takeover: Paramount edges Netflix
The landscape has shifted since Netflix announced its acquisition of Warner Bros. in December. Soon after, Paramount launched a hostile takeover bid exceeding $100 billion.
Initially, the market favored Netflix, which held a 65% probability just last month. However, the tide has turned toward Paramount, which now leads at 55%, while Netflix has dropped to 35%. Analysts attribute this shift to Paramount’s massive offer and the perception that its bid faces fewer regulatory hurdles. Regardless of the outcome, $1.2 million in volume is at stake.
Prediction markets as the new crystal ball
As 2026 unfolds, prediction markets are evolving from niche hobbyist platforms into high-stakes indicators of real-world outcomes. Whether forecasting a corporate takeover or a presidential speech, the millions in trading volume reflect a growing public trust in the wisdom of the crowd over traditional polling. As these markets continue to mature, they offer a unique, real-time pulse on the events shaping our year.
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