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State of Play’s TL;DR
- A federal appeals court said California tribes are likely to succeed on key IGRA claims against Kalshi’s sports-event contracts when accessed from tribal lands.
- Ruling could impact Wisconsin case.
A federal appeals court has handed two California tribes an important early win in their fight with Kalshi over sports-event contracts.
The Ninth Circuit said the tribes are likely to succeed on key claims that those contracts amount to Class III gaming when accessed from Indian lands.
The unanimous Sept. 16 decision does not end the case, but it does sharpen one of the biggest legal questions around sports prediction markets: When do federally regulated event contracts also run into gambling law, especially tribal gaming law?
Ninth Circuit says IGRA likely applies on tribal lands
The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed part of a lower court ruling that had denied preliminary injunctive relief to Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians.
The tribes sued Kalshi and Robinhood over sports-event contracts tied to sporting outcomes. According to the ruling, the tribes are likely to succeed on their claims under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act because Kalshi’s sports-event contracts qualify as Class III gaming activity when users enter the contracts from tribal territory.
The panel also rejected Kalshi’s argument that the Commodity Exchange Act displaces IGRA here. Writing for the court, Judge M. Margaret McKeown said:
“The CEA and IGRA address two different questions.”
The Ninth Circuit sent the case back to federal district court to consider the remaining requirements for a preliminary injunction. It also upheld dismissal of the tribes’ false-advertising claim under the Lanham Act.
Why the ruling matters beyond California
For tribes and operators, the ruling is a meaningful appellate signal that sports-event contracts may still face gambling-law scrutiny even when offered under federal commodities law.
That matters beyond California because a related case is already moving in Wisconsin. The Ho-Chunk Nation sued Kalshi and Robinhood in August 2025 on similar theories. In May, U.S. District Judge William Conley allowed the Nation’s central IGRA claims against Kalshi to proceed, but denied a preliminary injunction after finding the Nation had not shown irreparable harm. He also dismissed Robinhood, along with false-advertising and racketeering claims.
On Sept. 11, Conley certified two legal questions for possible immediate appeal to the Seventh Circuit. If Kalshi seeks that review quickly, the Wisconsin case will be stayed.
What’s next?
The Ninth Circuit ruling is not binding on the Wisconsin case because that dispute sits in the Seventh Circuit. Still, it gives tribes a fresh appellate precedent as courts sort out where prediction markets end and gaming law begins.
Kalshi may yet appeal the Ninth Circuit decision, according to Reuters, while the California case now returns to district court for the rest of the preliminary-injunction analysis.
Based on reporting by Victoria Fox for The Circle.
