Kalshi offers event contracts on the NFL, NBA, international sports like soccer, and even esports. However, sports markets at Kalshi are controversial and restricted in several states.
Kalshi Prediction Market Review & Promo Code
$10 Sign-Up Bonus
Why use Kalshi?
Pros
- It's arguably the most trusted prediction sites in the US.
- Markets include politics, sports, weather, and tech.
- Instant deposits via crypto and debit cards.
$10 Sign-Up Bonus
Deposit methods
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market exchange platform where users trade on the future outcomes of various events. In simpler terms, it is a site that lets you trade on your opinions of what you think will happen in the future.
You may think of Kalshi as a new type of betting platform, but it differs significantly from an online sportsbook in many aspects. Most notably, there are more things to bet on besides sports, including politics, finance, entertainment, the weather, and much more.
Prediction markets like Kalshi are still relatively new. Understandably, many gamblers and curious readers learning about them for the first time don’t quite understand how they work. This comprehensive review will help solve that – it covers everything about how Kalshi works in a simplified way that’s easy to understand. Read on to learn more about Kalshi Prediction Market, and don’t forget to use our exclusive promo code PLAYUSA for a sign-up bonus of $10!
Our Kalshi sign-up bonus & promo code offer
You can unlock a sign-up bonus of $10 by using our exclusive promo code when registering on Kalshi. The site will ask you for a valid promo code when you get to the “birthday” section of the registration form – copy and paste our Kalshi promo code PLAYUSA.
However, the bonus doesn’t unlock immediately after signing up – you must fund your account and trade at least $100 within 90 days after joining to qualify. Fortunately, it doesn’t matter whether your trades win or lose – you get the bonus either way. You can then use the bonus to trade on any events without any restrictions.
Sign up at Kalshi - First Legal & Regulated Prediction Market in the US
Sign up at Kalshi - First Legal & Regulated Prediction Market in the US
$10 Bonus
New User Welcome Offer
Kalshi Review
Trade on Sports, Politics, and MORE
Largest Prediction Markets in the US
Trade on over 300 Markets
Use Exclusive Bonus Code: PLAYUSA
Notably, this is a one-time offer only available to new users. Unfortunately, users in certain states cannot claim the offer due to legal restrictions.
Another important note: PlayUSA strongly recommends Kalshi over prediction sites like Polymarket due to Kalshi’s license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a U.S.-based predictions market exchange for trading “event contracts.” Event contracts, essentially yes-or-no or A-or-B questions, are based on the future outcomes of real-world events. For example, “Will Bitcoin cross $100K again this year?” As such, the contract represents your prediction on whether or not something will happen.
While it is essentially similar to betting, Kalshi shouldn’t be confused with a traditional sportsbook or casino. Notably, event contracts are financial instruments, and picking “Yes” or “No” isn’t placing a bet but rather buying shares. You buy “Yes” shares if you believe that something will happen or “No” shares otherwise.
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and classified as a “Designated Contract Market” (DCM). To this end, the platform operates under the oversight of the U.S. Federal government and thus doesn’t need state gambling licenses, unlike sportsbooks and casinos. Notably, CFTC regulation is crucial because it not only legalizes trading but also reassures users of the site’s transparency, integrity, security, and trust. Furthermore, Kalshi has recently partnered with Crypto.com to form the first alliance of legit prediction market sites in the US.
Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. A Beta version of the platform launched in 2019, and in 2020, it became the first fully regulated financial exchange for event contracts in the U.S. Its popularity grew quickly thereafter, and it promised enough potential to attract significant investment from companies like Sequoia Capital and prominent figures like Henry Kravis between 2021 and 2023.
How does Kalshi work?
Trading on future outcomes of events at Kalshi is easy once you understand the concept. Here’s a simplified overview of how Kalshi works.
Event contracts explained
Trading (betting) on the future entails buying event contracts, a new asset class based on predictions. The contracts are based on specific questions with Yes/No options. You buy “Yes” shares if you think that the outcome will be so, and “No” shares if you think otherwise.
Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99, which also reflects the market’s collective probability of either outcome. For example, consider an event contract based on the question, “Will Bitcoin cross $100K again this year?” Suppose “Yes” shares cost $0.60, it means that there is a 60% probability that Bitcoin will cross the 100K mark again, and a 40% probability that it won’t. The correct outcome pays out $1 per share, while the wrong one becomes worthless. As such, if you bought “Yes” shares and Bitcoin crossed $100K, you would make profits of $0.40 per share.
Trading mechanics & marketplace structure
Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange platform and Designated Contract Market. It functions differently from the proverbial “house” in sportsbooks and casinos. Notably, users don’t trade against the platform or “house” but rather against other users. Like a stock exchange, Kalshi only provides the marketplace and the rules.
An order book model is used to execute trades by matching buy and sell orders. Moreover, there is market-maker style liquidity, whereby the level of liquidity depends on trade volumes. To this end, some markets and contracts are more liquid than others. Contracts expire when the event’s outcome is known, after which winners are paid.
Who uses Kalshi & why?
Kalshi is used by people with diverse interests and backgrounds. Many users use it casually to profit from speculating on the future. However, there are more informed users, including professionals and experts in their fields, who utilize the platform as a tool for hedging or forecasting.
What you can trade on at Kalshi (markets & contract types)
Kalshi lets users speculate and trade on a wide range of events across many categories, such as politics, sports, entertainment, finance, and more. Here’s a quick overview of the most popular market categories:
Sports
Politics
Politics is one of the most vibrant categories, with markets covering events like election outcomes, the passage of bills, congressional votes, new appointments, and more.
Economics & finance
Markets under the economics and finance categories cover topics like interest rate decisions, GDP growth, stock index levels, cryptocurrency prices, job numbers, and more.
Science & technology
There are lots of interesting events to trade on in the science and tech categories, such as when the next iPhone model will launch or who will win the AI race.
Entertainment
There’s no shortage of events to trade on in the entertainment categories, such as the Oscars and Grammys awards, reality TV, movie box office performance, and more.
Weather & climate
Markets are based on different weather seasons and overall climate trends, such as temperature records, snowfall totals, and more.
Versatility is a key advantage when trading at Kalshi, as it goes beyond the scope of ordinary sportsbooks and online casinos. With such numerous events across different categories, it better suits users’ incredibly different interests and preferences. It is especially appealing to people interested in national and global events, particularly those who follow the news closely.
Kalshi – payments, deposits & buying positions
Here’s a quick step-by-step guide on how to get started with Kalshi:
1
Create and verify your Kalshi account
You need a user account to start trading on Kalshi. As such, go to the registration page to create your account. You must also verify your identity and age by providing a valid ID and other documents showing proof of residency. Notably, you must be above 18 years old and located in a state where Kalshi is permitted to join the platform.
2
Deposit methods
Next, you need money in your account to trade on event contracts. There are various ways to fund your account, including debit cards, bank transfers, and wire transfers. Notably, debit deposits incur a 2% processing fee.
3
Account balances and buying power
Notably, Kalshi works like a stock brokerage account. To this end, users must wait for deposits to clear before buying event contracts if their funds aren’t available instantly after depositing. All balance is held in USD.
4
Buying a position on Kalshi
Kalshi is not a contest, game, or even a betting platform despite the exciting, simple nature of its event contracts. It functions like a financial exchange where users buy positions in the outcomes they think will pan out.
Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and directly reflect the general implied probability of that particular outcome. Winning contracts pay out $1 per share when the event concludes, while losing contracts become worthless. The difference between $1 and the buying price is the trader’s profit.
5
Withdrawing funds
Withdrawals are made in USD to a linked bank account. Processing times vary, which is typical for financial institutions. There are also holding times for withdrawing deposited funds, depending on the deposit method you use and the account you’re withdrawing to.
6
Key differences from crypto-based platforms
Kalshi differs from crypto-based prediction markets in several key aspects, including the following:
- There are no crypto wallets.
- Volatility of currency value isn’t a concern.
- There are no token conversions.
Pros of using Kalshi
- Kalshi is fully regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Notably, it was the first prediction market to become fully regulated in the U.S.
- Kalshi offers an extensive variety of markets (event contracts) for users to trade on. The biggest, most active categories include politics, sports, entertainment, and climate.
- With about 400,000 regularly active users trading on the site, Kalshi records significant trade volumes across most of its markets. To this end, many markets are highly liquid, allowing users to exit trades before the events conclude. Moreover, the odds are dynamic and change based on sentiments and trading activity.
- Most of the events and markets on Kalshi are based on events that get reported in the news. As such, it is ideal for people who follow the news closely.
- Kalshi is regulated at the Federal level, giving it nationwide access across most states. Besides the U.S., Kalshi is also accessible in over 140 countries, which is convenient for traveling users.
Cons, risks, and legal/regulatory caveats
- Kalshi is regulated at the federal level, which should make it accessible across all states. However, some states have challenged its legality, arguing that certain markets constitute illegal gambling.
- While many markets on Kalshi are highly liquid, some are not. Most notably, long-dated markets and niche markets that don’t attract much attention have low liquidity.
- The events and markets on Kalshi are binary contracts (Yes or No), making them all-or-nothing bets. This means that you risk losing your entire stake if you make an incorrect prediction.
- Several states classify some of the markets on Kalshi as illegal gambling, especially sports events. To this end, access is restricted across certain states.
- Many first-time Kalshi users are familiar with sportsbooks but not prediction markets. To this end, aspects like contracts, probabilities, and trading mechanics are confusing at first.
- Kalshi lets users trade on just about any event that fits the available categories. Some of the available markets include controversial real-world events with negative effects, which can raise ethical concerns among some users.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Yes, you can trade event contracts on the outcomes of matches across many sports, including football, basketball, soccer, and more. However, sports-based event contracts on Kalshi are controversial in certain states, some of which have sent cease and desist orders to Kalshi. These tend to be states that feature legal sports betting and USA online casinos, as they view Kalshi as an under-regulated threat.
Kalshi is legal in the U.S. since it is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. Technically, it is authorized to operate nationwide across all states. However, it is restricted across eight states because of the controversial nature of some of its markets and event contracts. As such, legality and access vary depending on your state.
Kalshi has fees and charges like every other prediction market. Most notably, it charges $0.10 per contract upon trade entry, which can make frequent short-term scalping costly. Moreover, deposits via debit cards incur a 2% processing fee. There’s also the inevitable cost of slippage and spread, which vary between different markets based on liquidity.
Yes, you risk losing your entire stake in an event contract if the outcome you selected fails. The binary (Yes/No) nature or event contracts means that winners take it all while losers get nothing. Fortunately, you can exit your positions early (for markets with enough liquidity) before events conclude to limit your losses.
As with any form of online gambling, exercise caution.
Anyone above 18 years old can use Kalshi. However, access may be restricted in certain states, despite the platform being regulated by the CFTC at the federal level.
Final verdict & who Kalshi is right for
Kalshi stands out among other prediction markets for several reasons, most notably for being the first one to become regulated by the CFTC. It also boasts a broad scope of categories and numerous markets to trade on beyond sports, including politics, finance, science, the weather, and more.
To this end, Kalshi is ideal for people interested in real-world events and who don’t mind the risk and volatility involved in event contracts trading. New users must also be willing to learn the market mechanics, which aren’t as complicated as they seem at first.
However, it is worth noting the risk involved in trading at Kalshi or any other prediction market. To this end, you should treat predictions as speculative if you are unfamiliar with the mechanics or are risk-averse. Most importantly, remember the golden rule: never stake more than you can afford to lose. Besides the underlying financial risk, Kalshi also comes with regulatory uncertainty due to the controversial nature of some of its markets.
While trading on event contracts at Kalshi is exciting, you should trade responsibly since outcomes can be unpredictable, posing a financial risk. If it sounds like something you’d want to do, be sure to use our exclusive Kalshi promo code PLAYUSA to unlock your $10 sign-up bonus. However, remember that the bonus is only a small incentive, not a guarantee for profits.
