Betting on the 2020 Super Bowl

Super Bowl Betting Projections

The amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl annually is pretty staggering. That number will only continue to grow as additional states legalize sports betting in the coming year.

For now, the survey results from the American Gaming Association in advance of the 2019 Super Bowl were rather eye-opening:

• An estimated $6 billion was to be bet on the game.
• 22.7 million Americans planned to place wagers on the Super Bowl.

The numbers from the AGA survey include amounts wagered in the black markets, such as with unlicensed and unregulated offshore operators.

PlayUSA ran the numbers on the legal, licensed side. Here’s what we found:

• $325 million in legal wagers to be placed on the 2019 Super Bowl.
• $160 million of the total to be bet in Nevada.
• $100 million of the total to be bet in New Jersey.
• The remainder spread across the other legalized states.

The difference between the two sets of numbers further demonstrates the astonishing potential of legal, regulated sports betting.

2020 odds to win Super Bowl LIV

The odds to win the Super Bowl continually evolve over the regular season. Teams who surprise with solid play can suddenly see a lot of attention head their way, while others that disappoint will see their odds impacted as a result.

We’ll go through the futures market in full detail shortly. For now, let’s see what the odds look like for the winner of this year’s Super Bowl.

What is the line and why does it change?

Once the Super Bowl matchup is final, oddsmakers will release the game lines.

The moneyline odds will tell you which side is favored to win the game outright, while the total odds will give you the estimated points scored for the matchup.

The spread odds capture much of the attention in the run-up to the game. In a nutshell, the oddsmakers attach an additional wrinkle to the equation via the point spread. The favored side will have to win by a certain amount of points to cover the spread, while the underdog side can win if they keep the margin closer than the spread suggests.

Leading up to the game, the spread odds can shift based on market action. The 2019 Super Bowl provides a perfect example of this.

Upon release, the Los Angeles Rams were slight favorites over the New England Patriots. As bets began to come in, the market shifted. By game time, the Patriots were favored over the Rams.

Some bettors like to jump on lines as they are released, while others prefer to wait until closer to game time to place their bets. There’s no right or wrong way to do it, but be aware that the lines can shift during the week. If you see a spread that you like, you may want to get your bets in.

Super Bowl futures betting

As mentioned earlier, there is an active futures market for the winner of the upcoming Super Bowl. So, exactly what does that mean?

Sportsbooks will list odds for each of the teams in the league to win the big game in the upcoming season. In some cases, the odds are released as soon as the current Super Bowl is in the books.

Bettors can make their choices at any point. After doing so, they’ll hold a futures ticket on their selection. Those who are correct will have to wait until the conclusion of the big game, but the experience can be quite rewarding.

As bets are placed and time moves along, the futures market evolves. Some teams may receive a lot of bets, and their odds will lessen, i.e., shorten, as a result. Teams who don’t receive as much attention may see their odds lengthen, i.e., increase.

This process goes on throughout the preseason and into the regular season.

You could place some well-researched wagers in the offseason and see how it goes, or you can stay on top of the market as it continues to evolve to hunt for attractive opportunities.

Beyond the actual number of bets placed on each team, the market is also impacted by things such as significant injuries to key players and team performance once the games begin. Teams who looked like potential contenders in the preseason could fall flat once the games begin to count, while others can come out of nowhere and impress.

For example, heading into the 2019 season, the Cleveland Browns were generating a lot of buzz. Many bettors bought into the hype, and the Browns attracted a good deal of futures market interest. After the season began, it was pretty clear that the Browns weren’t quite ready for primetime. Those that placed wagers on the team to win the Super Bowl had some buyer’s remorse as a result.

On the other side of the coin, the San Francisco 49ers didn’t receive anywhere near the attention the Browns did in the offseason. However, the team ripped out of the gates and impressed. Futures bettors on the 49ers grew more optimistic with each passing week.

The futures market will continue to respond as the season plays out. In a nutshell, it’s a fun way to stay engaged on the Super Bowl on a year-round basis, not to mention potentially making a nice profit if all goes well.

What are the most popular Super Bowl bets

One of the best things about Super Bowl betting is the variety of betting options available.

From those new to betting to seasoned handicappers, there are always plenty of attractive wagering opportunities available.

Here’s a rundown of the most popular bets and types:

• Spread Bets: For these bets, you’re deciding which side you like to win the game while also factoring in the point spread, which has been put in place by oddsmakers.
• Moneyline Bets: For this wager, you need to decide which side will win the game without worrying about any extra points being factored into the equation.
• Totals Bets: This bet revolves around the total points scored in the game. Oddsmakers will put a benchmark in place while bettors decide if the points scored will be over or under the designated number.
• Prop Bets: These are additional wagers available beyond the traditional game bets. Prop bets can revolve around a specific instance happening in a game, or a player reaching a specific benchmark, for example.

While much of the chatter in the run-up to the game revolves around the traditional bet types, prop bets are big business for the Super Bowl. These bets are available for pretty much every game, but the sportsbooks go the extra mile and open up the market for the Super Bowl.

For example, there are prop bets on how long the national anthem will take prior to the game, or the color of the Gatorade in the victory celebration.

In addition to being cool talking points, bets like these have gained a good deal of popularity in recent years.

Bet on the Super Bowl MVP

As the Super Bowl approaches, a good amount of discussion centers on which players could be in line for one of the game’s biggest honors. The player who has the greatest impact on the game receives the Super Bowl MVP award.

Quarterbacks have dominated the award in recent years, as well as on an all-time basis. Over the last 10 Super Bowls, a QB has won the award seven times. In the history of the Super Bowl, QBs have been the choice 29 times.

The odds for Super Bowl MVP will generally reflect this, as the QBs from the two teams are likely to be at the top of the odds chart. However, it’s important to remember that it’s far from a sure thing.

In 2019, wide receiver Julian Edelman won the award, while a defensive player has been the choice in two of the last 10 years.

Most insane bets ever made on the Super Bowl

As the biggest sporting event of the year, the Super Bowl attracts significant action at sportsbooks. A good deal of the money comes from small recreational bettors, but plenty also flows in from bettors with much larger bankrolls.

Here’s a look at some of the largest wagers placed on the 2019 Super Bowl between the Rams and Patriots:

• $2 million on the Rams moneyline.
• $1 million on Patriots -2.5 points.
• $50,000 on Rams’ Super Bowl future for a potential win of $175,000.
• $15,000 on Patriots’ Super Bowl future for a potential win of $75,000.

The Patriots went on to win the game by a score of 13-3. It was great news for Patriots’ moneyline and spread bettors, as well as those who went for the under on totals bets. For those who placed a boatload of cash on the Rams and the over, there’s always next year.

NFL Super Bowl betting strategy and tips

As with betting on all NFL games, standard handicapping rules apply when wagering on the Super Bowl. There are experienced bettors with detailed systems that they follow to the letter, as well as casual folks who rely on things such as gut feel.

There’s no right or wrong approach, as it all comes down to your comfort level. However, long-term success in any endeavor requires putting some effort into honing your skills, so it’s important to keep that in mind.

There’s no magic system for Super Bowl betting success. To drive that point home, check out the stats on favorites and totals through the 2019 Super Bowl:

• Favorites are 26-25-2 against the spread in the history of the Super Bowl.
• Overs are 26-25-1 all-time (No total bets for Super Bowl I).

While the data above suggests flipping a coin and calling it a day will even out over several years of Super Bowls, that doesn’t mean you can’t put in some effort toward finding an edge.

Some teams are poor matchups for the other in a number of facets, while recent play and quality of postseason wins can be huge clues toward finding which team has a leg up on the other.

You won’t find any shortage of opinions on which side will win or cover, as well as the total points and various prop betting scenarios. If you’re not the type who likes to research, then find a few trusted sources to lean on and tune out the rest of the noise.

Super Bowl trivia & fun facts

On Feb. 2, 2020, Super Bowl LIV will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.

The previous 53 editions of the big game have all been memorable in their own right, and each has done its part to shape NFL history.