Which Casino Game Has the Best Odds?

Blackjack

You have about a 49.3% chance of either winning or pushing a blackjack hand.

There are four potential outcomes when you play:

• Get paid out at 3:2 if you are dealt a natural blackjack.
• Receive a 1:1 payout if you get closer to 21 than the dealer or if the dealer goes bust.
• Lose your bet if you go bust or if the dealer gets closer to 21 than you.
• Get your money back (push) if it is a tie.

Blackjack is weighted slightly in the dealer’s favor, so these are the probabilities associated with each outcome.

• The chances of you winning an individual hand of blackjack is 42.22%.
• The likelihood of the dealer winning is roughly 50.7%.
• The chance of a push (tie) stands at around 8.48%.

However, you may be dealt a natural blackjack, which produces a higher payout. The chances of being dealt a natural blackjack are roughly 4.8%.

When you take the potential for a 3:2 payout on a natural blackjack into account, the overall Return to Player (RTP) rate on a classic blackjack game is 99.6%. That equates to a house edge of just 0.4%.

However, in order to realize this low odds opportunity, you need to follow the optimal blackjack strategy to benefit from the best odds possible.

Video poker

Your overall chances of success during a theoretical session will be 49.77%, although you may need to make the correct strategic decisions when playing video poker.

That said, the chances of landing each hand vary significantly. For example, these are the probabilities on a standard Jacks or Better game:

• Royal Flush – 0.003%
• Straight Flush – 0.01%
• Four of a kind – 0.02%
• Full house – 1.11%
• Flush – 1.11%
• Straight – 1.13%
• Three of a kind – 7.42%
• Two pair – 12.89%
• Jacks or Better – 21.27%
• Nothing – 54.77%

A royal flush offers the largest payout, as the chances of you securing one are very slim. At the other end of the scale, you get paid out at just 1:1 for a hand of Jacks or Better, as it has a higher chance of success.

Craps

There are various ways to bet craps – some with much better odds for the player than others. For example:

• A don’t pass bet gives the player a 48.64% of winning.
• You can then wager 6x your initial bet amount at “true odds” (with no house edge) behind the existing don’t pass bet on certain craps games.
• For instance, you could bet $10 at a 1.36% house edge and $60 with zero house edge, resulting in $70 wagered at an overall house edge of just 0.19%.

And your chances of winning if you simply bet on whether or not the shooter will win on their roll are close to 50%.

However, there are also bets you can make that have very low odds. For instance, with a bet such as Any 7, the player only has a 16.67% chance of winning.

Certain slots

It depends on the slot you chose – RTP can range from 94-99%. Therefore, your odds of winning would range from 44-49%.

It’s rare to find 99% RTP rates on slots, but they do exist, such as Mega Joker by NetEnt.

You also need to consider the volatility rate of a particular slot when determining the likelihood of winning each spin. Your chances are closer to 50/50 when you play a low-volatility slot that does not offer large jackpots, whereas your chances of winning a specific spin of the reels will be a lot lower if you play a highly volatile slot that offers the prospect of a huge jackpot.

Baccarat

There are three possible outcomes when you play baccarat:

• Banker’s hand wins
• Player’s hand wins
• Tie

The probability of the banker’s hand winning is 45.86% (+118 or 2.18). The chances of a tie are 9.52% (+950 or 10.5), and the chances of the player’s hand winning are 44.62% (+124 or 2.24).

If you bet on the banker’s hand or the player’s hand and the result is a tie, your bet will settle as a push, and you will get your money back.

It means that the banker’s hand loses only 44.62% of the time. However, it only pays out at 19:20, whereas a bet on the player’s hand pays out at 1:1, and a tie bet pays out at 8:1.

Despite only paying out at 19:20, the banker’s hand carries the lowest house edge of any baccarat bet (1.06%). That essentially gives you a 49.47% chance of success if you bet on the banker’s hand.