Oscar Betting Guide 2020

The Golden Globes used to be a great indicator of who will win the Oscars, but in recent years, the two groups are increasingly not on the same page. Rather than monitor the Globe winners, follow which films and people win the various awards for their respective guilds.

When it comes to Oscar voting, members of the Academy only vote in categories they work in. The editors are the only ones who vote for Best Editing, for example. The only category everyone votes for is Best Picture. The best way to figure out which film editors prefer, you need look no further than the American Cinema Editors awards.

If there is one guild award you should pay attention to more than the rest, it is the Producer’s Guild of America (PGA) award. In the 29 years of existence, the PGA winner has gone on to win Best Picture 79 percent of the time. The Director’s Guild of America (DGA) is equally as successful as predicting Best Picture and even more accurate when it comes to predicting Best Director.

When the Academy expanded the Best Picture category to up to 10 nominees in 2009, it also changed how the voting for the category worked. The new preferential ballot system tends to award movies everyone feels generally positive about.

Polarizing movies like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri and La La Land have too many people that strongly disliked them to win. The film most likely to be ranked in the top three of the most ballots is the one most likely to win.

If you haven’t noticed, Hollywood is a little bit in love with itself. Dating back to the start of the Academy Awards, movies about movies and the arts have always fared well.

Recent examples include The Artist, Argo, Birdman, and last year’s The Shape of Water. This year’s Best Picture field includes three entertainment industry stories, Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star Is Born. Green Book winning PGA top honors and being a story about musicians definitely works in its favor.

Four of the last five Best Actor winners won for playing real people. This year, 12 of the 20 acting nominees are people depicting an actual person. While the actress awards don’t heed with this trend as much, the actor awards do tend to go to portrayals of real people. This year, the frontrunners in both Actor and Supporting Actor are roles based on real people.

In the case of Rami Malek’s portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, he also has a physical transformation as well, which means even more bonus points in his favor. Academy voters also love actors putting on pounds, putting on latex, and putting themselves through the wringer for their craft.